You down with ADP? First Base Edition Part 2

“It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent that survives. It is the one that is the most adaptable to change.” Charles Darwin

His ADP has risen 32 spots, hopefully he can blast than many HR's

His ADP has risen 32 spots, hopefully he can blast than many HR’s

Once again, I am following up on the Roto Analysis founders ranks for first base here, with not only a look at present ADP’s but also a look back as to what they were in January to see who is on the move. The depth at first base is not as strong as in years past, so making a strong choice will go a long way to determining fantasy success. Here is the most recent top 40:

1B Overall Player Name Yahoo ESPN CBS NFBC Avg
1 3 Paul Goldschmidt 3 4 3 3 3.2
2 7 Chris Davis  7 6 11 7 7.2
3 15 Prince Fielder  17 12 15 14 14.2
4 16 Edwin Encarnacion  18 10 22 18 15.2
5 17 Joey Votto  15 18 14 17 16.2
6 26 Freddie Freeman  30 31 37 23 30
7 42 Buster Posey  38 35 33 41 43.8
8 43 Albert Pujols  46 45 55 40 44.6
9 53 Eric Hosmer 68 54 67 49 55.8
10 55 Allen Craig 52 60 73 57 57.6
11 56 Mark Trumbo 77 74 53 60 57.8
12 60 Adrian Gonzalez  63 53 63 56 60.6
13 62 David Ortiz  60 52 76 76 61.8
14 66 Joe Mauer  54 63 32 59 64.8
15 70 Carlos Santana  78 72 57 67 74.8
16 95 Anthony Rizzo  111 108 114 100 101.8
17 98 Jose Dariel Abreu  137 134 103 86 104
18 99 Jonathan Lucroy  153 100 69 79 104.2
19 104 Michael Cuddyer  109 106 140 119 110.8
20 120 Billy Butler  104 118 130 148 118.6
21 123 Matt Adams  149 115 82 125 125.8
22 130 Brandon Moss  178 119 164 140 132.6
23 136 Daniel Murphy  176 135 111 110 136.4
24 137 Mike Napoli  157 117 171 136 138.2
25 141 Brandon Belt  138 154 166 130 139
26 157 Victor Martinez  181 146 168 169 157.6
27 191 Kendrys Morales  264 196 205 186 199.8
28 192 Mark Teixeira  189 174 194 196 200
29 194 Chris Carter  297 221 226 207 201.6
30 200 Nick Swisher  232 208 217 211 205.4
31 209 Ryan Howard  205 216 232 222 213
32 227 Corey Hart  362 223 197 232 248.2
33 235 Justin Morneau  298 253 286 202 241.4
34 247 Adam LaRoche  391 257 292 270 270
35 249 Adam Lind  374 189 337 234 274.8
36 256 Chris Johnson  247 230 280 260 258.4
37 265 Adam Dunn  365 247 288 286 276.4
38 314 James Loney  340 241 366 305 313
39 328 Mark Reynolds  303 353 392 326.3

Now a look at how the first basemen were being selected in January before Spring Training:

Average ADP’s on 1/6/14 
1B Player NFBC
1 P. Goldschmidt 3.12
2 C. Davis 8
3 J. Votto 15
4 P. Fielder 17
5 E. Encarnacion 18.59
6 F. Freeman 23.53
7 A. Pujols 40.82
8 A. Craig 50.24
9 E. Hosmer 51.94
10 Ad. Gonzalez 56.76
11 M. Trumbo 71.82
12 A. Rizzo 117.82
13 J. Abreu 118.76
14 M. Adams 136.94
15 B. Belt 142.71
16 M. Napoli 146.35
17 K. Morales 151.76
18 B. Moss 151.82
19 M. Teixeira 191.94
20 R. Howard 207
21 N. Swisher 209.94
22 J. Morneau 220.94
23 C. Hart 227.29
24 A. Lind 235.06
25 A. Dunn 261.12
26 A. LaRoche 274.47
27 Y. Alonso 287.41
28 J. Loney 294.06
29 J. Smoak 332.76
30 I. Davis 350.94

First Base is shaping up to be a position that really depends on where you are drafting. If drafting in the top 5, only Goldschmidt seems to be taken this early. Either you believe in last year or you do not, but for the value, it may be worth waiting until the second round. Another polarizing figure is Chris Davis. He had a monstrous 2013 and the power is for real, but his career batting average is .267 and he hit .245 over the second half, are owners willing to have that drain in the first round? Can the veterans like Pujols, Fielder and Votto rebound? Want a young first baseman on the rise like Freeman, Hosmer or Jose Abreu? Here are some profiles on first basemen (just click the last name):

  • Deeper 1B Tracks: Matt Adams, Mitch Moreland, Adam Lind and Corey Hart

If you are interested my first attempt at projections this year are on the following google doc for first base: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AtNowoEl_Az_dGZjdHBhV05rRDh1bHV5bGQxTEtQRHc&usp=sharing

Here are some players that are on the move and possibly worth the risk later in drafts:

The Jefferson’s Movin’ on Up – ADP’s on the rise since 1/6/14

  • 1.    Jose Abreu, Chicaco White Sox – Riding the wave of rookie intrigue, Abreu has seen a meteoric rise up thirty two spots from 118.76 to 86 in NFBC drafts. In recent drafts, it will cost a 6th round pick to secure him in 12 team drafts. His swing looks smooth and if he can keep his approach may be worth the risk but his profit margin has all but closed.
  • 2.    Anthony Rizzo, Chicago Cubs – Rizzo has the ability to hit 30 or more home runs and may be a part of the wave of prospects that has to make Cubs fans smile. If he can make gains against left handed pitching and rise in his average to .260+ will only enhance his value going forward.
  • 3.    Brandon Moss, Oakland – He is profiled above but is still vastly underrated, he hit 30 home runs last year in a platoon role that suited him well. That is what people are paying for Adams to do even though he has not done it before. Yet in NFBC drafts, Adams is still going a full round ahead of Moss.

Free Fallin’ – ADP’s on the way down

  • 1.    Kendrys Morales, FA – Morales makes for an interesting gamble, but there is less than two weeks to opening day. It is hard to invest an empty draft pick on a player who may take a month to be ready. No one has suffered such a precipitous drop in value since January but it will take a leap of faith at this point.
  • 2.    Ryan Howard, Philadelphia Phillies – I can hardly argue with this one. Manager Ryne Sandberg seems to love Darin Ruf who may take away at bats from Howard and there is a weird karma following the Phillies around. Howard could be a cheap 20 home runs late in drafts if you missed out on a corner infielder, but in shallower leagues he is going undrafted.

High Fliers – Breakouts in 2014

  • 1.    Jose Abreu, Chicago White Sox – At this point though, the only way for him to really be profitable for his new ADP is to hit more than 30 home runs, possible but in keeper leagues he may be a great target. Especially in AL only leagues where only Jonathan Singleton made the top 100 lists for 1B.
  • 2.    Matt Adams, St. Louis Cardinals – Like Abreu, he has to hit 30 to justify reaching for him in drafts. Many seem to love him but I will take Moss later every time.

There are players that can be targeted and knowledge of where they are going and what they are capable of seems to help value them. Only Goldschmidt, Hosmer and Belt are projected to steal 7 or more bases on my list and the 30 home run guys could grow with Rizzo and Adams primed to make a run at that number in 2014. With the early start in Australia, drafts are being pushed up so good luck and draft wisely my friends.

Greg Jewett is a staff writer for Roto Analysis and you can follow us on Twitter @RotoAnalysis and @gjewett9

Jose Abreu picture credit: http://mlb.mlb.com/images/players/525×330/547989.jpg

Statistical Credit: Fangraphs.com

, ,

No comments yet.

Leave a Reply