Once again, I am following up on the Roto Analysis founders ranks for first base here, with not only a look at present ADP’s but also a look back as to what they were in January to see who is on the move. The depth at first base is not as strong as in years past, so making a strong choice will go a long way to determining fantasy success. Here is the most recent top 40:
|17||98||Jose Dariel Abreu||137||134||103||86||104|
Now a look at how the first basemen were being selected in January before Spring Training:
|Average ADP’s on 1/6/14|
First Base is shaping up to be a position that really depends on where you are drafting. If drafting in the top 5, only Goldschmidt seems to be taken this early. Either you believe in last year or you do not, but for the value, it may be worth waiting until the second round. Another polarizing figure is Chris Davis. He had a monstrous 2013 and the power is for real, but his career batting average is .267 and he hit .245 over the second half, are owners willing to have that drain in the first round? Can the veterans like Pujols, Fielder and Votto rebound? Want a young first baseman on the rise like Freeman, Hosmer or Jose Abreu? Here are some profiles on first basemen (just click the last name):
- Jose Abreu
- Brandon Belt
- Brandon Moss
- Albert Pujols
- Deeper 1B Tracks: Matt Adams, Mitch Moreland, Adam Lind and Corey Hart
If you are interested my first attempt at projections this year are on the following google doc for first base: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AtNowoEl_Az_dGZjdHBhV05rRDh1bHV5bGQxTEtQRHc&usp=sharing
Here are some players that are on the move and possibly worth the risk later in drafts:
The Jefferson’s Movin’ on Up – ADP’s on the rise since 1/6/14
- 1. Jose Abreu, Chicaco White Sox – Riding the wave of rookie intrigue, Abreu has seen a meteoric rise up thirty two spots from 118.76 to 86 in NFBC drafts. In recent drafts, it will cost a 6th round pick to secure him in 12 team drafts. His swing looks smooth and if he can keep his approach may be worth the risk but his profit margin has all but closed.
- 2. Anthony Rizzo, Chicago Cubs – Rizzo has the ability to hit 30 or more home runs and may be a part of the wave of prospects that has to make Cubs fans smile. If he can make gains against left handed pitching and rise in his average to .260+ will only enhance his value going forward.
- 3. Brandon Moss, Oakland – He is profiled above but is still vastly underrated, he hit 30 home runs last year in a platoon role that suited him well. That is what people are paying for Adams to do even though he has not done it before. Yet in NFBC drafts, Adams is still going a full round ahead of Moss.
Free Fallin’ – ADP’s on the way down
- 1. Kendrys Morales, FA – Morales makes for an interesting gamble, but there is less than two weeks to opening day. It is hard to invest an empty draft pick on a player who may take a month to be ready. No one has suffered such a precipitous drop in value since January but it will take a leap of faith at this point.
- 2. Ryan Howard, Philadelphia Phillies – I can hardly argue with this one. Manager Ryne Sandberg seems to love Darin Ruf who may take away at bats from Howard and there is a weird karma following the Phillies around. Howard could be a cheap 20 home runs late in drafts if you missed out on a corner infielder, but in shallower leagues he is going undrafted.
High Fliers – Breakouts in 2014
- 1. Jose Abreu, Chicago White Sox – At this point though, the only way for him to really be profitable for his new ADP is to hit more than 30 home runs, possible but in keeper leagues he may be a great target. Especially in AL only leagues where only Jonathan Singleton made the top 100 lists for 1B.
- 2. Matt Adams, St. Louis Cardinals – Like Abreu, he has to hit 30 to justify reaching for him in drafts. Many seem to love him but I will take Moss later every time.
There are players that can be targeted and knowledge of where they are going and what they are capable of seems to help value them. Only Goldschmidt, Hosmer and Belt are projected to steal 7 or more bases on my list and the 30 home run guys could grow with Rizzo and Adams primed to make a run at that number in 2014. With the early start in Australia, drafts are being pushed up so good luck and draft wisely my friends.
Greg Jewett is a staff writer for Roto Analysis and you can follow us on Twitter @RotoAnalysis and @gjewett9
Jose Abreu picture credit: http://mlb.mlb.com/images/players/525×330/547989.jpg
Statistical Credit: Fangraphs.com