Draft time is rapidly approaching and Roto Analysis is hopping on board. Our founders posted their Catcher ranks on Friday and I am going to take a look at ADP’s and notice if there are any players trending up or down. By looking at the ADP’s you can tell that ESPN and Yahoo leagues are primarily one catcher leagues. With that knowledge, one can wait on the position early in drafts and still get a catcher with upside. For the purposes of this article, I did a quick 12 team mock on Yahoo and was floored that Wilson Ramos was still available in the fifteenth round. First, the Roto Analysis top 30 catchers can be found here. Below is the current top 40 according to FantasyPros.com :
|ADP data compiled from Yahoo, ESPN, CBS, NFBC, MockDraftCentral|
Here are the top 30 catchers taken in NFBC drafts on January 6th:
|NFBC ADP’s 1/6/14|
While there has not been a huge swing in values, trends in drafts suggest that a catcher run will occur in the late fourth to early fifth rounds. Depending on where you are selecting and how the team is being built has a profound effect on what catcher(s) you get. In one catcher leagues I really suggest patience. In two catcher leagues, grabbing a solid catcher and taking a flier in the late rounds works or double up where Ramos and Gattis are going.
Here are some catcher player profiles that I have already been done just click the hyperlinks:
I am also attaching a link to a google doc in which I projected out 31 catchers and have their SGP still attached to observe the tiers. Follow the link: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AtNowoEl_Az_dDc0Sk02R0ZFQ3RMMU9HdFQ0dGRjcWc&usp=drive_web#gid=0 if you would like to look. This is my first attempt at projecting and the results were interesting.
The Jefferson’s – Movin’ on Up
- 1. Yan Gomes, Cleveland – with Santana working out at 3B and his strong finish in 2013, Gomes is seeing his value go up in drafts rising three spots in the overall ranks. There is some risk here but the upside outweighs the risks. His second half batting average was inflated due to a 5% increase in his LD% so just figure on a lower average when drafting him.
- 2. Travis d’Arnaud, New York Mets – He was profiled above, and he has been traded for two Cy Young Award winners, R.A Dickey and Roy Halladay. d’Arnaud has talent, just needs to be healthy for a whole season. His stock is rising but not sure he will return the value.
- 3. Alex Avila, Detroit – With the Tigers scoring runs at ease during spring training, their number one catcher has seen a rise in his ADP. Avila will provide counting stats, but his average may be a risk. Tread carefully.
Free Fallin’ – Players ADP’s that have gone down
- 1. Carlos Ruiz, Philadelphia – Ruiz seems to be suffering from last year bias. Chooch is only one year removed from a 16 HR and 68 RBI season in 2012 with the Phillies. He has been cleared to use Adderall and even if he regresses some a double digit home run season with an average that will not hurt a team has to have value.
- 2. Mike Zunino, Seattle – Not sure if the signing of John Buck or his batting average is scaring drafters away. His power is for real and is probably a year away from being mixed league draft worthy, but I could see a second half power surge out of him.
- 3. Welington Castillo, Chicago Cubs – Castillo possesses less power than Zunino but he could put up a season similar to Yan Gomes without being a detriment in the batting average department.
High Flier Stocks – Players that could take a jump in 2014
- 1. Josmil Pinto, Minnesota – Pinto seems to be overlooked in the Twins stacked minor league system. He is under sized and underappreciated but he has raked at every level. His power surge in September placed him on fantasy radars. But the signing of Kurt Suzuki may have tempered that enthusiasm. He is not as high as he could have been in my rankings due to the playing time concerns. But if he plays early on, grab Pinto and profit.
- 2. Yasmani Grandal, San Diego – Time is running out for Grandal to make a fantasy impact. He has been ravaged by injuries but his potential keeps him on late round draft queues. It is hard to trust him as a starter, but a late bench stash this could finally be the year he pays off.
- 3. Hank Conger, Los Angeles of Anaheim – Conger is a bit of a reach but his 10.1 HR/FB% and escape from Mike Sciossa’s dog house may finally make him fantasy relevant. His struggle for playing time has never been about his offense but his defense. If he could play 100+ games there is potential for 15 home runs.
- 4. Stephen Vogt, Oakland – Like Conger, more of an AL only player but Jaso has a hard time staying on the field and Vogt is an emerging bat at catcher. He is on the right side of a platoon and just needs a chance at regular at bats.
It is the best time of the year, prepping for drafts and filling out NCAA brackets. Use the ADP knowledge as a guide and draft wisely my friends. Be sure to read Roto Analysis for further positional updates and more profiles to come.
Greg Jewett is a staff writer for Roto Analysis and you can follow us on the Twitter @RotoAnalysis and @gjewett9
New York Daily News NFBC ADP Reports