You down with ADP? Catcher Edition Part 2

Can d'Arnaud finally make his fantasy breakthrough?

Can d’Arnaud finally make his fantasy breakthrough?

Draft time is rapidly approaching and Roto Analysis is hopping on board. Our founders posted their Catcher ranks on Friday and I am going to take a look at ADP’s and notice if there are any players trending up or down. By looking at the ADP’s you can tell that ESPN and Yahoo leagues are primarily one catcher leagues. With that knowledge, one can wait on the position early in drafts and still get a catcher with upside. For the purposes of this article, I did a quick 12 team mock on Yahoo and was floored that Wilson Ramos was still available in the fifteenth round. First, the Roto Analysis top 30 catchers can be found here. Below is the current top 40 according to FantasyPros.com :

ADP data compiled from Yahoo, ESPN, CBS, NFBC, MockDraftCentral
C Overall Player Name Yahoo ESPN CBS NFBC MDC Avg
1 43 Buster Posey 38 34 33 41 77 44.6
2 67 Joe Mauer 53 63 32 59 124 66.2
3 70 Carlos Santana 78 72 57 67 99 74.6
4 78 Yadier Molina 74 53 83 72 135 83.4
5 84 Wilin Rosario 119 108 70 64 84 89
6 98 Jonathan Lucroy 154 100 68 80 116 103.6
7 99 Brian McCann 107 98 84 76 156 104.2
8 132 Salvador Perez 142 143 114 85 186 134
9 138 Matt Wieters 165 149 107 99 169 137.8
10 160 Evan Gattis 175 195 93 119 225 161.4
11 170 Wilson Ramos 189 161 151 132 244 175.4
12 196 Jason Castro 211 193 176 158 278 203.2
13 235 Yan Gomes 260 269 175 197 282 236.6
14 238 A.J. Pierzynski 235 259 229 185 302 242
15 239 Miguel Montero 214 276 226 203 294 242.6
16 249 Jarrod Saltalamacchia 237 232 220 284 243.3
17 280 Travis d’Arnaud 337 214 253 300 276
18 286 Russell Martin 223 296 269 305 273.3
19 291 Alex Avila 215 329 291 298 283.3
20 293 Carlos Ruiz 255 315 251 371 298
21 294 Devin Mesoraco 277 258 272 309 279
22 297 A.J. Ellis 213 366 344 368 322.8
23 298 Ryan Doumit 229 295 292 272
24 300 John Buck 220 220
25 304 Dioner Navarro 264 269 294 312 284.8
26 311 J.P. Arencibia 238 352 365 318.3
27 327 Mike Zunino 258 303 299 308 292
28 366 Welington Castillo 404 287 311 334
29 377 Josmil Pinto 292 315 380 329
30 380 Derek Norris 390 299 344.5
31 427 Yasmani Grandal 370 338 367 358.3
32 433 Geovany Soto 382 343 362.5
33 444 John Jaso 378 357 367.5
34 458 Jesus Montero 380 446 413
35 468 Chris Iannetta 405 405
36 469 Hank Conger 408 408
37 479 Josh Phegley 432 432
38 488 Kurt Suzuki 455 455
39 492 Nick Hundley 467 467
40 510 Ryan Hanigan 490 490

 

Here are the top 30 catchers taken in NFBC drafts on January 6th:

NFBC ADP’s 1/6/14
C Player Overall
1 Buster Posey 39.41
2 Joe Mauer 66.35
3 Carlos Santana 66.35
4 Yadier Molina 66.88
5 Wilin Rosario 69
6 Brian McCann 80.65
7 Salvador Perez 83.24
8 Jonthan Lucroy 86.29
9 Matt Wieters 96.76
10 Evan Gattis 116.18
11 Wilson Ramos 145.94
12 Jason Castro 154.47
13 AJ Pierzynski 190.35
14 Jarrod Saltalamacchia 206.35
15 Yan Gomes 215.29
16 Miguel Montero 224.59
17 Carlos Ruiz 248.29
18 Ryan Doumit 249.88
19 Russell Martin 260.24
20 Travis d’Arnaud 270.76
21 Devin Mesoraco 280.71
22 Josmil Pinto 290.06
23 Wellington Castillo 292.18
24 Mike Zunino 295.47
25 Dioner Navarro 300.29
26 Alex Avila 305.82
27 JP Arencibia 329.71
28 Geovany Soto 336.59
29 AJ Ellis 349.18
30 Yasmani Grandal 353.59

While there has not been a huge swing in values, trends in drafts suggest that a catcher run will occur in the late fourth to early fifth rounds. Depending on where you are selecting and how the team is being built has a profound effect on what catcher(s) you get. In one catcher leagues I really suggest patience. In two catcher leagues, grabbing a solid catcher and taking a flier in the late rounds works or double up where Ramos and Gattis are going.

Here are some catcher player profiles that I have already been done just click the hyperlinks:

I am also attaching a link to a google doc in which I projected out 31 catchers and have their SGP still attached to observe the tiers. Follow the link: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AtNowoEl_Az_dDc0Sk02R0ZFQ3RMMU9HdFQ0dGRjcWc&usp=drive_web#gid=0 if you would like to look. This is my first attempt at projecting and the results were interesting.

The Jefferson’s – Movin’ on Up

  • 1.    Yan Gomes, Cleveland – with Santana working out at 3B and his strong finish in 2013, Gomes is seeing his value go up in drafts rising three spots in the overall ranks. There is some risk here but the upside outweighs the risks. His second half batting average was inflated due to a 5% increase in his LD% so just figure on a lower average when drafting him.
  • 2.    Travis d’Arnaud, New York Mets – He was profiled above, and he has been traded for two Cy Young Award winners, R.A Dickey and Roy Halladay. d’Arnaud has talent, just needs to be healthy for a whole season. His stock is rising but not sure he will return the value.
  • 3.    Alex Avila, Detroit – With the Tigers scoring runs at ease during spring training, their number one catcher has seen a rise in his ADP. Avila will provide counting stats, but his average may be a risk. Tread carefully.

Free Fallin’ – Players ADP’s that have gone down

  • 1.    Carlos Ruiz, Philadelphia – Ruiz seems to be suffering from last year bias. Chooch is only one year removed from a 16 HR and 68 RBI season in 2012 with the Phillies. He has been cleared to use Adderall and even if he regresses some a double digit home run season with an average that will not hurt a team has to have value.
  • 2.    Mike Zunino, Seattle – Not sure if the signing of John Buck or his batting average is scaring drafters away. His power is for real and is probably a year away from being mixed league draft worthy, but I could see a second half power surge out of him.
  • 3.    Welington Castillo, Chicago Cubs – Castillo possesses less power than Zunino but he could put up a season similar to Yan Gomes without being a detriment in the batting average department.

High Flier Stocks – Players that could take a jump in 2014

  • 1.    Josmil Pinto, Minnesota – Pinto seems to be overlooked in the Twins stacked minor league system. He is under sized and underappreciated but he has raked at every level. His power surge in September placed him on fantasy radars. But the signing of Kurt Suzuki may have tempered that enthusiasm. He is not as high as he could have been in my rankings due to the playing time concerns. But if he plays early on, grab Pinto and profit.
  • 2.    Yasmani Grandal, San Diego – Time is running out for Grandal to make a fantasy impact. He has been ravaged by injuries but his potential keeps him on late round draft queues. It is hard to trust him as a starter, but a late bench stash this could finally be the year he pays off.
  • 3.    Hank Conger, Los Angeles of Anaheim – Conger is a bit of a reach but his 10.1 HR/FB% and escape from Mike Sciossa’s dog house may finally make him fantasy relevant. His struggle for playing time has never been about his offense but his defense. If he could play 100+ games there is potential for 15 home runs.
  • 4.    Stephen Vogt, Oakland – Like Conger, more of an AL only player but Jaso has a hard time staying on the field and Vogt is an emerging bat at catcher. He is on the right side of a platoon and just needs a chance at regular at bats.

It is the best time of the year, prepping for drafts and filling out NCAA brackets. Use the ADP knowledge as a guide and draft wisely my friends. Be sure to read Roto Analysis for further positional updates and more profiles to come.

Greg Jewett is a staff writer for Roto Analysis and you can follow us on the Twitter @RotoAnalysis and @gjewett9

Travis d’Arnaud picture credit: http://assets.nydailynews.com/polopoly_fs/1.1320561!/img/httpImage/image.jpg_gen/derivatives/landscape_635/injuryweb19s-1-web.jpg

Statistical Credit:

Fangraphs.com

FantasyPros.com

New York Daily News NFBC ADP Reports

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