With a relatively short season, a single elimination tournament, and 18-year old athletes, college basketball is one of the hardest sports to measure and predict. Sources like Ken Pomeroy and ESPN’s BPI have been huge improvements in recent years, but the flaws of the RPI and the AP Poll are still extremely visible and accepted far too easily.
For this piece, I wanted to study the AP poll and see just how effective it was at predicting tournament success. In recent years this has been especially strong, as Kentucky this year (#1 preseason, unranked postseason) made a run to the final 4 and knocked off Wichita St. (#16 preseason, #2 postseason) in the second round. So just how strong is the correlation between the first poll of the year, the last poll of the year, and the tournament to end the year?
A lot of the voters are old-timers with poor reasoning and shoddy analysis, and it turns out that the pre-season poll is nearly as effective at predicting March Madness games as the end of season poll is. I went back the last 15 years and tracked the preseason and postseason polls and compared them to tournament wins. Here is the raw poll data:
Note: if a team that went far in the tournament is missing, it’s because they weren’t in the top 25 of the first or last poll of the year.
Year School Conf Pre Final Tourney Wins
2000 Michigan State Big Ten 3 2 6
2001 Duke ACC 2 1 6
2002 Maryland ACC 2 0 6
2003 Syracuse Big East 13 6
2004 Connecticut Big East 1 0 6
2005 North Carolina ACC 4 2 6
2006 Florida SEC 11 6
2007 Florida SEC 1 3 6
2008 Kansas Big 12 4 4 6
2009 North Carolina ACC 1 2 6
2010 Duke ACC 9 3 6
2011 Connecticut Big East 9 6
2012 Kentucky SEC 2 1 6
2013 Louisville Big East 2 2 6
2000 Florida SEC 8 13 5
2001 Arizona Pac-10 1 5 5
2002 Indiana Big Ten 22 5
2003 Kansas Big 12 2 6 5
2004 Georgia Tech ACC 0 5
2005 Illinois Big Ten 5 1 5
2006 UCLA Pac-10 19 7 5
2007 Ohio State Big Ten 7 1 5
2008 Memphis CUSA 3 2 5
2009 Michigan State Big Ten 6 8 5
2010 Butler Horizon 11 11 5
2011 Butler Horizon 17 5
2012 Kansas Big 12 13 6 5
2013 Michigan Big Ten 5 10 5
2000 North Carolina ACC 6 4
2001 Michigan State Big Ten 3 3 4
2001 Maryland ACC 5 11 4
2002 Kansas Big 12 7 0 4
2002 Oklahoma Big 12 25 0 4
2003 Texas Big 12 4 5 4
2003 Marquette CUSA 18 9 4
2004 Duke ACC 2 0 4
2004 Oklahoma State Big 12 25 0 4
2005 Michigan State Big Ten 13 15 4
2005 Louisville CUSA 14 4 4
2006 Louisiana State SEC 19 4
2007 UCLA Pac-10 6 7 4
2007 Georgetown Big East 8 8 4
2008 North Carolina ACC 1 1 4
2008 UCLA Pac-10 2 3 4
2009 Connecticut Big East 2 5 4
2009 Villanova Big East 23 11 4
2010 Michigan State Big Ten 2 13 4
2010 West Virginia Big East 8 6 4
2011 Kentucky SEC 11 11 4
2012 Ohio State Big Ten 3 7 4
2012 Louisville Big East 9 17 4
2013 Syracuse Big East 9 16 4
2014 Kentucky SEC 1 4
2014 Florida SEC 10 1 4
2014 Connecticut AAC 18 18 4
2014 Wisconsin Big Ten 20 12 4
2000 Oklahoma State Big 12 22 14 3
2000 Purdue Big Ten 23 25 3
2000 Iowa State Big 12 6 3
2000 Tulsa WAC 18 3
2001 Stanford Pac-10 4 2 3
2001 Illinois Big Ten 8 4 3
2001 Southern California Pac-10 23 3
2002 Missouri Big 12 8 3
2002 Connecticut Big East 0 3
2002 Oregon Pac-10 0 3
2003 Arizona Pac-10 1 2 3
2003 Oklahoma Big 12 3 3 3
2003 Michigan State Big Ten 9 3
2003 Kentucky SEC 17 1 3
2004 Kansas Big 12 6 0 3
2004 Saint Joseph's A-10 17 0 3
2005 Kentucky SEC 9 7 3
2005 Arizona Pac-10 10 9 3
2005 Wisconsin Big Ten 21 20 3
2006 Texas Big 12 2 9 3
2006 Connecticut Big East 3 2 3
2006 Villanova Big East 5 3 3
2006 Memphis CUSA 12 4 3
2007 North Carolina ACC 2 4 3
2007 Kansas Big 12 3 2 3
2007 Memphis CUSA 14 5 3
2007 Oregon Pac-10 10 3
2008 Louisville Big East 6 13 3
2008 Texas Big 12 15 7 3
2008 Xavier A-10 12 3
2008 Davidson Southern 23 3
2009 Louisville Big East 3 1 3
2009 Pittsburgh Big East 5 4 3
2009 Oklahoma Big 12 12 7 3
2009 Missouri Big 12 9 3
2010 Kentucky SEC 4 2 3
2010 Tennessee SEC 10 15 3
2010 Kansas State Big 12 7 3
2010 Baylor Big 12 19 3
2011 Kansas Big 12 7 2 3
2011 North Carolina ACC 8 7 3
2011 Florida SEC 9 15 3
2011 Arizona Pac-10 17 3
2012 North Carolina ACC 1 4 3
2012 Syracuse Big East 5 2 3
2012 Florida SEC 8 25 3
2012 Baylor Big 12 12 9 3
2013 Ohio State Big Ten 4 7 3
2013 Duke ACC 8 6 3
2013 Florida SEC 10 14 3
2013 Marquette Big East 15 3
2014 Michigan State Big Ten 2 11 3
2014 Arizona Pac-12 6 4 3
2014 Michigan Big Ten 7 7 3
2000 Duke ACC 10 1 2
2000 UCLA Pac-10 12 2
2000 Syracuse Big East 17 16 2
2000 Tennessee SEC 19 11 2
2000 Gonzaga WCC 24 2
2000 Miami (FL) Big East 25 23 2
2000 Louisiana State SEC 10 2
2001 Kansas Big 12 7 12 2
2001 Kentucky SEC 12 9 2
2001 UCLA Pac-10 17 15 2
2001 Cincinnati CUSA 18 2
2001 Mississippi SEC 14 2
2001 Georgetown Big East 21 2
2002 Duke ACC 1 0 2
2002 Illinois Big Ten 3 0 2
2002 Kentucky SEC 4 0 2
2002 UCLA Pac-10 5 2
2002 Texas Big 12 23 2
2002 Arizona Pac-10 0 2
2002 Pittsburgh Big East 0 2
2003 Pittsburgh Big East 5 4 2
2003 Duke ACC 6 7 2
2003 Maryland ACC 13 17 2
2003 Connecticut Big East 15 23 2
2003 Wisconsin Big Ten 21 2
2003 Notre Dame Big East 22 2
2004 Syracuse Big East 7 0 2
2004 Texas Big 12 12 0 2
2004 Illinois Big Ten 13 0 2
2004 Wake Forest ACC 20 0 2
2004 Pittsburgh Big East 22 0 2
2005 Oklahoma State Big 12 7 6 2
2005 Duke ACC 11 3 2
2005 North Carolina State ACC 19 2
2005 Washington Pac-10 22 8 2
2005 Utah MWC 18 2
2005 Villanova Big East 19 2
2005 Texas Tech Big 12 24 2
2006 Duke ACC 1 1 2
2006 Gonzaga WCC 8 5 2
2006 Boston College ACC 11 7 2
2006 West Virginia Big East 14 22 2
2006 Washington Pac-10 17 2
2006 Georgetown Big East 23 2
2007 Pittsburgh Big East 4 12 2
2007 Texas A&M Big 12 13 9 2
2007 Tennessee SEC 25 25 2
2007 Southern Illinois MVC 14 2
2007 Nevada-Las Vegas MWC 19 2
2007 Butler Horizon 21 2
2007 Southern California Pac-10 23 2
2008 Tennessee SEC 7 5 2
2008 Michigan State Big Ten 8 18 2
2008 Washington State Pac-10 10 21 2
2008 Stanford Pac-10 23 10 2
2008 Wisconsin Big Ten 6 2
2009 Duke ACC 8 6 2
2009 Gonzaga WCC 10 10 2
2009 Purdue Big Ten 11 17 2
2009 Memphis CUSA 13 3 2
2009 Kansas Big 12 24 14 2
2009 Syracuse Big East 13 2
2009 Xavier A-10 20 2
2010 Purdue Big Ten 7 10 2
2010 Washington Pac-10 14 2
2010 Ohio State Big Ten 16 5 2
2010 Syracuse Big East 4 2
2010 Xavier A-10 25 2
2011 Duke ACC 1 3 2
2011 Ohio State Big Ten 4 1 2
2011 Brigham Young MWC 24 10 2
2011 San Diego State MWC 25 6 2
2011 Wisconsin Big Ten 16 2
2012 Xavier A-10 14 2
2012 Wisconsin Big Ten 15 14 2
2012 Cincinnati Big East 21 2
2012 Marquette Big East 22 11 2
2012 Michigan State Big Ten 5 2
2012 Indiana Big Ten 16 2
2013 Indiana Big Ten 1 4 2
2013 Kansas Big 12 7 3 2
2013 Arizona Pac-12 12 21 2
2013 Michigan State Big Ten 14 9 2
2013 Miami (FL) ACC 5 2
2013 Oregon Pac-12 25 2
2014 Louisville AAC 3 5 2
2014 UCLA Pac-12 22 20 2
2014 Virginia ACC 24 3 2
2014 Baylor Big 12 25 23 2
2014 Iowa State Big 12 9 2
2014 San Diego State MWC 13 2
2000 Connecticut Big East 1 20 1
2000 Cincinnati CUSA 2 7 1
2000 Auburn SEC 4 24 1
2000 Ohio State Big Ten 5 8 1
2000 Temple A-10 7 5 1
2000 Arizona Pac-10 9 4 1
2000 Kansas Big 12 11 1
2000 Stanford Pac-10 13 3 1
2000 Kentucky SEC 14 19 1
2000 Utah MWC 15 1
2000 Illinois Big Ten 16 21 1
2000 St. John's (NY) Big East 18 9 1
2000 Texas Big 12 21 15 1
2000 Oklahoma Big 12 12 1
2000 Maryland ACC 17 1
2001 North Carolina ACC 6 6 1
2001 Florida SEC 11 8 1
2001 Notre Dame Big East 15 19 1
2001 Boston College Big East 7 1
2001 Syracuse Big East 17 1
2001 Saint Joseph's A-10 22 1
2001 Iowa Big Ten 24 1
2002 Stanford Pac-10 13 0 1
2002 Alabama SEC 24 0 1
2002 Cincinnati CUSA 0 1
2002 Ohio State Big Ten 0 1
2002 Mississippi State SEC 0 1
2002 Xavier A-10 0 1
2002 Georgia SEC 0 1
2003 Florida SEC 7 10 1
2003 Xavier A-10 10 12 1
2003 Missouri Big 12 19 24 1
2003 Indiana Big Ten 21 1
2003 Gonzaga WCC 22 1
2003 Tulsa WAC 25 1
2003 Wake Forest ACC 8 1
2003 Illinois Big Ten 11 1
2003 Louisville CUSA 14 1
2003 Stanford Pac-10 18 1
2004 North Carolina ACC 9 0 1
2004 Gonzaga WCC 10 0 1
2004 Kentucky SEC 11 0 1
2004 Wisconsin Big Ten 15 0 1
2004 Cincinnati CUSA 18 0 1
2004 Stanford Pac-10 19 0 1
2004 North Carolina State ACC 24 0 1
2004 Mississippi State SEC 0 1
2004 Maryland ACC 0 1
2004 Memphis CUSA 0 1
2005 Wake Forest ACC 2 5 1
2005 Georgia Tech ACC 3 25 1
2005 Connecticut Big East 8 13 1
2005 Florida SEC 23 16 1
2005 Gonzaga WCC 25 10 1
2005 Boston College Big East 14 1
2005 Oklahoma Big 12 17 1
2005 Pacific Big West 22 1
2005 Cincinnati CUSA 23 1
2006 Kentucky SEC 9 1
2006 Arizona Pac-10 10 1
2006 Alabama SEC 15 1
2006 Illinois Big Ten 17 13 1
2006 Iowa Big Ten 20 15 1
2006 George Washington A-10 21 14 1
2006 Ohio State Big Ten 6 1
2006 North Carolina ACC 10 1
2006 Pittsburgh Big East 16 1
2006 Tennessee SEC 18 1
2007 Wisconsin Big Ten 9 6 1
2007 Boston College ACC 15 1
2007 Texas Big 12 21 11 1
2007 Kentucky SEC 22 1
2007 Nevada WAC 24 15 1
2007 Washington State Pac-10 13 1
2007 Louisville Big East 16 1
2007 Maryland ACC 18 1
2007 Winthrop Big South 22 1
2008 Georgetown Big East 5 8 1
2008 Marquette Big East 11 25 1
2008 Duke ACC 13 9 1
2008 Arkansas SEC 19 1
2008 Pittsburgh Big East 22 17 1
2008 Kansas State Big 12 25 1
2008 Butler Horizon 11 1
2008 Notre Dame Big East 15 1
2008 Purdue Big Ten 20 1
2009 UCLA Pac-10 4 18 1
2009 Texas Big 12 7 1
2009 Arizona State Pac-10 15 19 1
2009 Marquette Big East 16 23 1
2009 Southern California Pac-10 18 1
2009 Wisconsin Big Ten 25 1
2009 Washington Pac-10 15 1
2009 Louisiana State SEC 21 1
2010 Kansas Big 12 1 1 1
2010 Villanova Big East 5 9 1
2010 California Pac-10 13 1
2010 Georgia Tech ACC 22 1
2010 New Mexico MWC 8 1
2010 Wisconsin Big Ten 16 1
2010 Brigham Young MWC 17 1
2010 Pittsburgh Big East 18 1
2010 Maryland ACC 20 1
2010 Gonzaga WCC 22 1
2010 Texas A&M Big 12 23 1
2011 Kansas State Big 12 3 21 1
2011 Pittsburgh Big East 5 4 1
2011 Syracuse Big East 10 12 1
2011 Gonzaga WCC 12 1
2011 Illinois Big Ten 13 1
2011 Purdue Big Ten 14 13 1
2011 Washington Pac-10 18 23 1
2011 Notre Dame Big East 5 1
2011 Texas Big 12 8 1
2011 West Virginia Big East 22 1
2012 Vanderbilt SEC 7 20 1
2012 Gonzaga WCC 23 1
2012 Florida State ACC 10 1
2012 Murray State OVC 12 1
2012 Georgetown Big East 15 1
2012 Creighton MVC 19 1
2012 New Mexico MWC 21 1
2013 North Carolina ACC 11 1
2013 Creighton MVC 16 22 1
2013 Memphis CUSA 17 19 1
2013 San Diego State MWC 20 1
2013 Gonzaga WCC 21 1 1
2013 Saint Louis A-10 13 1
2014 Kansas Big 12 5 10 1
2014 Syracuse ACC 8 14 1
2014 North Carolina ACC 12 19 1
2014 Memphis AAC 13 1
2014 Gonzaga WCC 15 1
2014 Wichita State MVC 16 2 1
2014 Oregon Pac-12 19 1
2014 Villanova Big East 6 1
2014 Creighton Big East 16 1
2014 Saint Louis A-10 25 1
2000 DePaul CUSA 20 0
2000 Indiana Big Ten 22 0
2001 Tennessee SEC 9 0
2001 Seton Hall Big East 10 0
2001 Utah MWC 13 0
2001 Connecticut Big East 14 0
2001 Arkansas SEC 15 0
2001 Wisconsin Big Ten 19 25 0
2001 Wake Forest ACC 20 23 0
2001 DePaul CUSA 21 0
2001 Oklahoma Big 12 22 13 0
2001 Virginia ACC 24 16 0
2001 Iowa State Big 12 25 10 0
2001 Texas Big 12 18 0
2001 Indiana Big Ten 20 0
2002 Florida SEC 6 0 0
2002 Iowa Big Ten 9 0
2002 Saint Joseph's A-10 10 0
2002 Virginia ACC 11 0
2002 Memphis CUSA 12 0
2002 Georgetown Big East 14 0
2002 Michigan State Big Ten 15 0
2002 Temple A-10 16 0
2002 Boston College Big East 17 0
2002 Oklahoma State Big 12 18 0 0
2002 North Carolina ACC 19 0
2002 Southern California Pac-10 20 0 0
2002 Syracuse Big East 21 0
2002 Gonzaga WCC 0 0
2002 Marquette CUSA 0 0
2002 Western Kentucky Sun Belt 0 0
2002 Miami (FL) Big East 0 0
2002 Hawaii WAC 0 0
2003 Alabama SEC 8 0
2003 Oregon Pac-10 11 0
2003 Mississippi State SEC 12 20 0
2003 UCLA Pac-10 14 0
2003 Georgia SEC 16 25 0
2003 Western Kentucky Sun Belt 20 0
2003 Cincinnati CUSA 23 0
2003 Minnesota Big Ten 24 0
2003 Creighton MVC 15 0
2003 Dayton A-10 16 0
2003 Memphis CUSA 19 0
2004 Michigan State Big Ten 3 0
2004 Arizona Pac-10 4 0 0
2004 Missouri Big 12 5 0
2004 Florida SEC 8 0
2004 Oklahoma Big 12 14 0
2004 Louisville CUSA 16 0
2004 Notre Dame Big East 21 0
2004 Marquette CUSA 23 0
2004 Providence Big East 0 0
2004 South Carolina SEC 0 0
2004 Utah State Big West 0 0
2005 Kansas Big 12 1 12 0
2005 Syracuse Big East 6 11 0
2005 Mississippi State SEC 12 0
2005 Maryland ACC 15 0
2005 Texas Big 12 16 0
2005 Pittsburgh Big East 17 0
2005 Alabama SEC 18 21 0
2005 Notre Dame Big East 20 0
2005 Memphis CUSA 24 0
2006 Michigan State Big Ten 4 0
2006 Oklahoma Big 12 6 24 0
2006 Louisville Big East 7 0
2006 Stanford Pac-10 13 0
2006 Syracuse Big East 16 21 0
2006 Wake Forest ACC 18 0
2006 Nevada WAC 22 20 0
2006 Maryland ACC 23 0
2006 Indiana Big Ten 24 0
2006 Iowa State Big 12 25 0
2006 Kansas Big 12 12 0
2006 Alabama-Birmingham CUSA 25 0
2007 Louisiana State SEC 5 0
2007 Arizona Pac-10 10 0
2007 Alabama SEC 11 0
2007 Duke ACC 12 0
2007 Marquette Big East 16 20 0
2007 Washington Pac-10 17 0
2007 Connecticut Big East 18 0
2007 Creighton MVC 19 0
2007 Syracuse Big East 20 0
2007 Georgia Tech ACC 23 0
2007 Notre Dame Big East 17 0
2007 Brigham Young MWC 24 0
2008 Indiana Big Ten 9 0
2008 Oregon Pac-10 12 0
2008 Gonzaga WCC 14 24 0
2008 Texas A&M Big 12 16 0
2008 Arizona Pac-10 17 0
2008 Southern California Pac-10 18 0
2008 Kentucky SEC 20 0
2008 North Carolina State ACC 21 0
2008 Southern Illinois MVC 24 0
2008 Drake MVC 14 0
2008 Connecticut Big East 16 0
2008 Vanderbilt SEC 19 0
2008 Clemson ACC 22 0
2009 Notre Dame Big East 9 0
2009 Tennessee SEC 14 0
2009 Miami (FL) ACC 17 0
2009 Florida SEC 19 0
2009 Davidson Southern 20 0
2009 Wake Forest ACC 21 12 0
2009 Georgetown Big East 22 0
2009 Florida State ACC 16 0
2009 Butler Horizon 22 0
2009 Clemson ACC 24 0
2009 Utah MWC 25 0
2010 Texas Big 12 3 0
2010 North Carolina ACC 6 0
2010 Connecticut Big East 12 0
2010 Michigan Big Ten 15 0
2010 Oklahoma Big 12 17 0
2010 Mississippi State SEC 18 0
2010 Louisville Big East 19 0
2010 Georgetown Big East 20 14 0
2010 Dayton A-10 21 0
2010 Illinois Big Ten 23 0
2010 Clemson ACC 24 0
2010 Minnesota Big Ten 25 0
2010 Temple A-10 12 0
2010 Vanderbilt SEC 21 0
2010 Richmond A-10 24 0
2011 Michigan State Big Ten 2 0
2011 Villanova Big East 6 0
2011 Missouri Big 12 15 0
2011 Baylor Big 12 16 0
2011 Memphis CUSA 19 0
2011 Georgetown Big East 20 0
2011 Virginia Tech ACC 21 0
2011 Temple A-10 22 0
2011 Tennessee SEC 23 0
2011 Louisville Big East 14 0
2011 St. John's (NY) Big East 18 0
2011 Utah State WAC 19 0
2011 Xavier A-10 20 0
2011 Texas A&M Big 12 24 0
2011 Vanderbilt SEC 25 0
2012 Connecticut Big East 4 0
2012 Duke ACC 6 8 0
2012 Pittsburgh Big East 10 0
2012 Memphis CUSA 11 0
2012 Arizona Pac-12 16 0
2012 UCLA Pac-12 17 0
2012 Michigan Big Ten 18 13 0
2012 Alabama SEC 19 0
2012 Texas A&M Big 12 20 0
2012 California Pac-12 24 0
2012 Missouri Big 12 25 3 0
2012 Wichita State MVC 18 0
2012 San Diego State MWC 22 0
2012 Nevada-Las Vegas MWC 23 0
2012 Saint Mary's (CA) WCC 24 0
2013 Kentucky SEC 3 0
2013 North Carolina State ACC 6 0
2013 UCLA Pac-12 13 24 0
2013 Missouri SEC 15 0
2013 Nevada-Las Vegas MWC 18 0
2013 Baylor Big 12 19 0
2013 Notre Dame Big East 22 23 0
2013 Wisconsin Big Ten 23 18 0
2013 Cincinnati Big East 24 0
2013 Florida State ACC 25 0
2013 Georgetown Big East 8 0
2013 New Mexico MWC 10 0
2013 Kansas State Big 12 12 0
2013 Oklahoma State Big 12 17 0
2013 Pittsburgh Big East 20 0
2014 Duke ACC 4 8 0
2014 Oklahoma State Big 12 9 0
2014 Ohio State Big Ten 11 22 0
2014 Virginia Commonwealth A-10 14 24 0
2014 Marquette Big East 17 0
2014 Notre Dame ACC 21 0
2014 New Mexico MWC 23 17 0
2014 Cincinnati AAC 15 0
2014 Oklahoma Big 12 21 0
Some of the more interesting trends I found:
- Of the last 14 champions, 3 have been the preseason #1 team and 2 have been the postseason #1 team.
- Of the last 14 champions, 3 weren’t ranked in the preseason (2003 Syracuse, 2006 Florida, & 2011 Connecticut).
- Of the four teams to start AND end the year at #1 in the poll (2002 Duke, 2006 Duke, 2008 UNC, & 2010 Kansas), only one made it past the Sweet 16.
- The preseason #1 teams average 3.13 tournament wins. None have missed the tournament, and only 2005 Kansas lost in the first round.
- The postseason #1 teams average (you guessed it) 3.13 tournament wins. All of them have won their first round game.
- Preseason top 5 teams average 2.73 tournament teams, while postseason top 5 teams average 3.01 tournament wins.
When you account for the fact that postseason ranked teams have higher seeds and easier games, it’s pretty impressive that the preseason ranked teams are able to come close to matching their win totals. A major flaw in the polls is the lack of respect for strength of schedule and rewarding non-conference teams that run through their schedules. By the end of the year, the likes of Wichita St. and Gonzaga often shoot up farther than they should while the 3rd and 4th best teams in power conferences are downgraded too much. In recent years this has been even more apparent with the raw talent of teams like Kentucky getting under-seeded and teams like Saint Louis riding an easier schedule and worse underlying numbers to a high seed.
As a whole, the preseason data had a .402 correlation to march madness wins, and postseason data had a .503 correlation coefficient. Below is a chart of how the two have compared from year to year.
Looking into next season and whenever evaluating college basketball, remember to look at the right metrics and know what to value. And going into next year, don’t downplay the power of the preseason poll.
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