Studying the Trends: NFL Lines

With Week 11 coming up, it’s time to take another look into the betting trends around the league. Whether it’s hitting the over, under, spread, or moneyline, there are a couple ways to figure out how to find an edge.

There are a few teams that have drastic swings with their NFL lines whether they’re at home or on the road. The Eagles are 0-4 at home and 5-1 on the road this season, and that’s something you should be careful of when you see them -4.5 favorites this weekend. The Redskins are 5-1 ATS in their last six games in Philly, and the Eagles are 0-11 ATS in their last 11 home games.

Home underdogs went on an 18-2 run earlier this season and remain a 60%+ option. This week the Bills, Dolphins, Steelers, and Jaguars fit the bill. The Jaguars have been an interesting case study to watch because their point spreads seem more like a college game than an NFL one. They’re now 2-2 ATS in their last four games so Vegas seems to have adjusted. However, it also shows that towards the beginning of the season if you feel a team is truly horrible you should consistently go against them.

The Chiefs and Broncos matchup this week is another intriguing matchup to study with an undefeated team being underdogs of more than a touchdown. This is the Chiefs’ first matchup with a record over .500 (the Broncos for the second time and the Colts in Week 16 are the only other .500+ teams they’ll play). Because of that schedule I’m still skeptical about how the Chiefs will be able to handle Denver on the road. The 7.5 is a fair line, but I’d still lean with Denver.

The final topic I wanted to discuss was over/unders. When you have a discrepancy as big as 371 to 115 from the most and least points scored by a team (Broncos and Jags), there are bound to be some discrepancies in the lines. What has been interesting to watch is the more extreme lines (under 40 and over 50) lead to winners in that same direction. Totals of under 40 are hitting the under 58% of the time while overs of over 50 are winners 64% of the time this season! Keep that in mind when you see a line that may make you think twice.

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