Argue between auctions and snake drafts all you want, but snake drafts will never go away. They’re faster, easier to understand to the casual fan, and sometimes even more fun (albeit WAY more frustrating in my opinion). That makes the million dollar question: what pick is best in a snake draft? Everybody always seems to want #1, but let’s take a look at where’s actually the best spot this year.
This article is an excerpt from our 2013 Draft Kit with TheFantasyFix.com. For more info on the kit, click HERE.
In the chart below, I calculated the average team that each pick would get based off of our RotoAnalysis & Fantasy Fix auction values (found only in our draft kit). So the #1 and #20 guy vs. the #10 and #11 guy, etc. through each round. The results were interesting to see.
Because we have AP ranked so high ($7 more than any other player) the #1 pick does indeed end up being the most desirable pick by our estimation. When it comes down to it, the top 2 rounds are really were the differences are made; when looking through our auction values in our rankings appendix once you get past the third round no single spot in the rankings has more than a one dollar difference.
It’s interesting that the top 5 picks are $200 or better and the second 5 are below $200, but from pick #2 to #9 it’s really not a huge difference. Looking at our rankings it’s either Doug Martin and Dez Bryant or Calvin Johnson and Trent Richardson. Either one sets you up nicely to build the roster the way you want to in the coming rounds.
Whether you like to go for a QB early, a TE early, or wait on either one, the first round spot you have shouldn’t matter. Whether you get that top 5 RB, miss that one guy you keyed on, or feel trapped, relax and don’t over-react. Trades happen and the season is a long and unpredictable ride. AP is certainly nice, but in the end don’t worry too much about your draft slot. You can build a championship team from any place by drafting smart and maximizing your value.
Matt Cott is a co-founder of RotoAnalysis. Follow his work all season long on RotoAnalysis.com, CBSPhilly.com, and on Twitter @KidCotti21.
Photo Credit: http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-jh2sXrsx15Y/UM7P36tWIsI/AAAAAAAAAUg/ZftAHf1f4zo/s400/Adrian-Peterson.jpg