Roto Analysis Awards, Picks and Pans

“Most successful pundits are selected for being opinionated, because it’s interesting, and the penalties for incorrect predictions are negligible. You can make predictions, and a year later people won’t remember them.” Daniel Kahneman

The only unanimous choice from the staff our AL MVP

The only unanimous choice from the staff our AL MVP

Having worked with Roto Analysis’ founders and staff over the past year has been something I have no regrets about. According to the quote though, I guess I need to become more opinionated in order to be a pundit. One of the best things about baseball is you cannot predict it. Who saw Matt Harvey’s breakout and unfortunate injury? Jose Fernandez was rumored to have a chance to break camp with the Marlins but I do not recall anyone saying he was a lock for Rookie of the Year. With that in mind I sent an email out to poll our staff and see who their picks are for the preseason award sprinkling in a few bonus selections such as breakouts, busts and sleepers for 2014.

In case you do not know all of us here are the voters so I can abbreviate their names in the columns and their twitter handles:

Matt Cott – @KidCott21 (Also dabbles in NBA, NFL and NCAA hoops)

Greg Jewett – @gjewett9 (MLB and known as a value addict)

Tim King – @tking978 (MLB and pitching guru, loves a certain Panda)

Moe Koltun – @moeproblems (MLB, NFL and movie knowledge galore at U of M)

Charles Kurz – @nolimits16423 (MLB and prospect specialist)

Matthew Schwimmer – @Schwimingly (does it all and plays baseball in college)

Jeffery Sharp – @JefferyBSharp (MLB and only blocked by 20 people on Twitter)

Roto Analysis Awards

 

Cott

Jewett

King

Koltun

Kurz

Schwimmer

Sharp

AL MVP

Trout

Trout

Trout

Trout

Trout

Trout

Trout

NL MVP

CarGo

CarGo

Harper

McCutchen

Harper

CarGo

Puig

Well you can see a theme as there is no positional player other than an outfielder. I am usually a Carlos Gonzalez apologist despite his health risk but the Matt’s are on board with me. Two votes to Bryce Harper, also not the healthiest dude, and Sharp with the Puig pick. Jeff is either contrarian or genius, or a mixture of both. I almost picked someone else in the AL like an Edwin Encarnacion, but the rotation in Toronto almost assures them of missing the playoffs so his value and possible great year will be neutralized by his teams finish near the bottom of the AL East.

 

Cott

Jewett

King

Koltun

Kurz

Schwimmer

Sharp

AL Cy Young

Darvish

Price

Sale

Darvish

Cobb

Price

Shields

NL Cy Young

Kershaw

Bumgarner

Wainwright

Strasburg

Bumgarner

Bumgarner

Kershaw

As in the case with drafts, the hitters seem to go in order and near their value while pitching depends more on personal preference. In the AL the votes are split at the top between Darvish and Price with wild cards Sale, Cobb and Shields mixed in. Our NL consensus is Bumgarner which is a bit of a surprise but watch out for Strasburg. Although I picked MadBum, Strasburg may finally put together the year that people were paying for the last two years.

 

Cott

Jewett

King

Koltun

Kurz

Schwimmer

Sharp

AL Rookie

Abreu

Abreu

Bogaerts

Bogaerts

Tanaka

Bogaerts

Gray

NL Rookie

Bradley

Hamilton

Springer

Hamilton

Bradley

Springer

Hamilton

Once again the majority lies with three votes and Xander Bogaerts taking the AL rookie of the year for Roto Analysis. This will be a strong class and close vote with Abreu and Tanaka adding some international flavor to the mix with Bogaerts. (I did not have time to get another pick from Jeff as Gray is not rookie eligible) The NL is narrowly decided by Billy Hamilton’s legs. He is a polarizing player and people seem to love him or think he will be in the minors. While his average and OBP will struggle, the speed is for real. Springer is another player dripping with talent but he starts the year in the minors and will be hard pressed to close the gap if Hamilton steals 70+ bases. Archie Bradley is intriguing and while he cannot pull a Jose Fernandez jump, could be in the rotation in the first month of the season and is worth tracking with all the TJS that happened recently.

American League Breakout, Busts and Sleepers

Hitters

Cott

Jewett

King

Koltun

Kurz

Schwimmer

Sharp

Breakout

Abreu

B Miller

Jennings

Machado

Abreu

C Santana

Profar

Bust

Hosmer

Longoria

A Jones

J Reyes

Pujols

Andrus

Donaldson

Sleeper

L Martin

Calhoun

B Miller

de Aza

Moss

Franklin

B Miller

Pitchers

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Breakout

Cobb

S Gray

Cobb

Cobb

Cobb

Salazar

S Gray

Bust

Moore

Smyly

Moore

Lester

Scherzer

Moore

Tanaka

Sleeper

Wilson

ERamirez

Nova

Archer

Kluber

M Perez

Cobb

There are some great names here. I am not necessarily down on Longoria as a player but his days of being considered an MVP should be over and his ADP reflects the dearth of third basemen available not how much you should bid at an auction. Brad Miller is affixed firmly to our staff’s radar and I agree. He is overlooked in drafts and could provide great value late as a shortstop or middle infielder. Alex Cobb is not going to sneak up on many people but his valiant return from injury and ability to mix his pitches makes him a great SP2 on teams this year without breaking the bank. However, his teammate Matt Moore does not engender the same leap of faith with the staff as the leading vote getter in the bust section. His strikeout potential is great, but the harm he does to a team’s WHIP makes him a risk no matter how cheap the price tag.

National League Breakout, Busts and Sleepers

Hitters

Cott

Jewett

King

Koltun

Kurz

Schwimmer

Sharp

Breakout

Belt

ECabrera

Rizzo

Adams

Yelich

Rizzo

S Castro

Bust

Segura

A Craig

Puig

Zimmerman

Kemp

Bruce

HRamirez

Sleeper

Adams

Arenado

K Davis

Yelich

Rendon

Mesoraco

J Baez

Pitchers

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Breakout

G Cole

Estrada

Samardzija

Wheeler

Bradley

Estrada

W Peralta

Bust

Liriano

Cingrani

Cingrani

Minor

C Lee

Hamels

Fernandez

Sleeper

Lynn

Johnson

Wood

*Beachy

Butler

Wood

Kennedy

The landscape in the NL is a bit more jumbled in our staff views. Whereas some names repeated the AL, the group above is much more varied. Two Dodgers made our bust section with Kemp and Hanley Ramirez appearing. If they are to win the division, one needs to avoid time on the DL for any extended period of time. Anthony Rizzo may make the jump this year and his price tag is enticing. I would much rather take a chance on him at the present ADP’s as compared to Allen Craig whose power never seems to show up and is why Matt Adams is on the sleeper lists. On the pitching side, Sharp never shies away from controversy listing Jose Fernandez as a bust. Tim and I agree upon Cingrani who relies way too much on his fastball and deceptive delivery. Without secondary pitches, his metrics may correct in 2014. There are two Padres on the sleeper list and if Johnson, Kennedy or both return to their past levels, the Padres will not be a team to sleep on this year. Kurz is bullish on Eddie Butler and the Rockies are developing pitching in the minor leagues.

Players Preferences

The last segment, I promise. Each analyst put a couple of names or a list of players that they seem to be drafting and avoiding this year. Here is each ones list:

Matt Cott

Players I find on most of my teams: W Myers, B McCann, C Yelich, A Cobb, Cashner

Players on none of my teams: C Gomez, J Upton, I Desmond, E Hosmer, Kershaw

Greg Jewett

Players I find on most of my teams: B Miller, J Heyward, C Sale, L Martin

Players on none of my teams: Kershaw, A Craig

Tim King

Player I find on most of my teams: Jason Heyward

Player on none of my teams: Billy Hamilton

Moe Koltun

Player I find on most of my teams: Billy Hamilton

Player I am avoiding Carlos Santana

Charles Kurz

Players I have on all my teams: Archie Bradley

Player I will not own: Albert Pujols

Matt Schwimmer

Someone who is on all my teams: Albert Pujols

Someone I have steered clear of: Matt Moore

Jeffery Sharp

One player who is on my teams: Sonny Gray

On my do not draft list: Yoenis Cespedes, Josh Donaldson

There are a bunch of names and players to avoid and target. Ultimately the decision lies with the drafter and every draft is different. So as not to forget, our picks are in writing so next year this can start with a review and look ahead. Good luck and happy drafting.

Greg Jewett is a staff writer for Roto Analysis and you can follow us on Twitter @RotoAnalysis and @gjewett9

Mike Trout picture credit: http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-UlDb1EMz4ug/UIcgTXAWw6I/AAAAAAAAHR0/lguBo4_Y2G0/s1600/TroutAG.jpg

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