Player Profile: Anthony Rendon

“Success consists in being successful, not in having potential for success. Any wide piece of ground is the potential site of a palace, but there’s no palace till it’s built.”

Fernando Pessoa

Rendon's is confident he can contribute to fantasy teams, promise

Rendon’s is confident he can contribute to fantasy teams

Fantasy owners are a fickle lot, last year there was a current to have Rendon in the majors and the allure of him at second base made him a must add for teams looking for an offensive boost when he was promoted in June. In that first month Rendon hit 330/358/473 with a home run and 12 RBI but cooled off in July and was probably dropped. Entering 2014 though, it seems as though the fantasy community is a bit more apprehensive to add Rendon. His current NFBC ADP of 225.07 reflects that as he is the 17th second baseman taken on average along with his FSTA pick at 198 again as the 17th pick at second base. Is his current value fair or does it create a buying opportunity? Considering Rendon played more games in the majors (79) than in the minors (57) in 2013 while learning a new position our judgments may be a bit too quick.

There are reports surfacing that Rendon will enter camp as the starter at second base but Danny Espinosa will be given the opportunity to compete to gain his old spot back. It will be interesting to see how the spring battle shakes out but I have much more faith in Rendon’s bat than Espinosa who may be moved before the season begins. As to Rendon, here are his monthly splits from 2013 in Washington:

Anthony Rendon

G

R

HR

RBI

AVG/OBP/SLG

K%

BB%

ISO

June

22

12

1

7

330/358/473

15.8

4.2

143

July

24

9

3

6

187/237/420

19.4

6.1

132

August

25

9

2

13

272/364/420

16.2

11.1

148

Sept/Oct

18

8

1

8

286/352/413

16.7

6.9

127

Following his hot start in June, Rendon crashed in July although he hit his most home runs in this month but his K% was at its highest. What is encouraging though are the adjustments he seemed to make in the last two months as his K% seemed to stabilize in the 16’s and his ISO peaked in August as did his RBI. Remember, this is a 23 year old playing in the majors with only 337 at bats in the minor leagues due to an injury shortened 2012, not playing a position he was comfortable with and in the major leagues. Under the circumstances I think Rendon proved he is an everyday major leaguer. Another positive sign is that Rendon was able to hit to all fields as evidenced by the spray chart from BrooksBaseball.net:

 

What remains to be seen is if Rendon in fact wins the second base job, can he adjust to right handed pitching and what his long term position in the majors will be. As for the first part, I do believe he will win the job in spring training. Rendon played for new manager Mitch Williams in the AFL and even though he will be tested, I think his bat will more important for Washington than Espinosa’s glove. While he is not totally overmatched by right handed pitching his slash lines show there is room to grow:

Anthony Rendon

AVG/OBP/SLG

ISO

HR/FB

BABIP

vs. LHP

294/359/471

176

16%

310

vs. RHP

253/316/365

112

4.2%

306

It is obvious that Rendon matched up better against lefties but his BABIP shows that with a little more luck against right handers that Rendon’s average has a chance to increase. If he can start to hit for more power as well, then he can make a run to 20 home runs as soon as 2014. To make a baseline for his 2014 projections, here are some of his on other sites:

Rendon Projections

R

HR

RBI

SB

AVG/OBP/SLG

Steamer

65

13

63

4

255/332/401

Oliver

71

14

68

4

262/341/429

CBS

58

11

52

2

270/343/417

I find it curious how different the projections are in regards to his average and runs. CBS obviously does not see Rendon getting full time at bats all season as reflected in the lowest projections with the exception of batting average. Even if he has to fight early in the year, I think he can exceed the expectations above with room to go above where I project him. He is not a palace yet, but the foundation is in place.

  • My Anthony Rendon Projection – 71 R, 16 HR, 67 RBI, 4 SB 277/345/421

Greg Jewett is a staff writer for Roto Analysis and you can follow us on Twitter @RotoAnalysis and @gjewett9

Statistics courtesy of Fangraphs.com and Baseball-Reference.com, projections courtesy of Fangraphs.com and CBS fantasy sports. Spray chart courtesy of BrooksBaseball.net.

Anthony Rendon picture credit:http://www.csnwashington.com/sites/csnwashington/files/anthonyrendon060113.png

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