Always a tough but rewarding few hours, our starting pitchers are finally ready to go. On first glance, it seems rather weak — while the top few guys are bonafide studs, the last top tier of pitcher is aging or struggling (see: the likes of Halladay & Haren or Lester & Lincecum). There is a new wave coming and there is a huge adjustment period right now.
Kris Medlen was a tough guy to rank due to a pretty small career sample, but also one whose second half performance easily warranted a top 20 ranking.
Another main point were these pitchers who consistently seem to outperform their peripheral stats like Johnny Cueto & Jeremy Hellickson. We tend to sometimes overrate the FIP and K/9s of the world and discount presence on the mound, the ability to get out of tough spots, and pitch-ability, and while abstract, those qualities clearly come through in pitcher performance.
Our rankings are a jumble of disagreements and arguments, but we believe that as a whole they definitely capture some of the odds regarding new upstart pitchers or older, “solid” guys performing well this season. And oh yeah, some guy named Stephen Strasburg is gonna have a decent season.
Player Moe Koltun Matt Schwimmer Matt Cott Average
1 Justin Verlander 1 1 1 1.00
2 Stephen Strasburg 2 2 3 2.33
3 Clayton Kershaw 3 3 2 2.67
4 Felix Hernandez 4 4 4 4.00
5 David Price 6 5 5 5.33
6 Cliff Lee 5 6 9 6.67
7 Zack Greinke 8 7 6 7.00
8 Cole Hamels 7 9 7 7.67
9 CC Sabathia 9 8 8 8.33
10 Matt Cain 10 12 10 10.67
11 Madison Bumgarner 11 11 13 11.67
12 R.A. Dickey 13 10 14 12.33
13 Gio Gonzalez 12 15 12 13.00
14 Adam Wainwright 15 17 11 14.33
15 Kris Medlen 14 13 17 14.67
16 Yu Darvish 16 14 16 15.33
17 Jered Weaver 18 21 15 18.00
18 Jordan Zimmerman 17 16 22 18.33
19 Matt Moore 19 19 17 18.33
20 Roy Halladay 20 18 20 19.33
21 Max Scherzer 22 20 18 20.00
22 Chris Sale 21 24 19 21.33
23 Johnny Cueto 23 28 21 24.00
24 James Shields 27 26 23 25.33
25 Anibal Sanchez 31 22 25 26.00
26 Mat Latos 26 30 24 26.67
27 Matt Garza 30 23 29 27.33
28 Aroldis Chapman 24 25 33 27.33
29 Yovani Gallardo 25 29 30 28.00
30 Doug Fister 28 27 31 28.67
31 Hiroki Kuroda 32 32 27 30.33
32 Jake Peavy 29 35 28 30.67
33 Tim Lincecum 37 37 26 33.33
34 C.J. Wilson 35 33 34 34.00
35 Ian Kennedy 33 39 32 34.67
36 Dan Haren 34 41 35 36.67
37 A.J. Burnett 44 31 36 37.00
38 Josh Johnson 36 38 37 37.00
39 Brandon Morrow 39 36 46 40.33
40 Derek Holland 42 40 43 41.67
41 Tim Hudson 40 43 42 41.67
42 Mike Fiers 43 49 38 43.33
43 Brett Anderson 38 34 59 43.67
44 Jeff Samardzija 45 50 39 44.67
45 Jeremy Hellickson 47 45 44 45.33
46 Ryan Dempster 41 44 53 46.00
47 Jarrod Parker 46 51 41 46.00
48 Edwin Jackson 50 46 48 48.00
49 Jon Niese 56 48 45 49.67
50 Wade Miley 49 52 49 50.00
51 Jason Hammel 51 42 58 50.33
52 Jon Lester 55 59 40 51.33
53 Tommy Hanson 48 56 54 52.67
54 Kyle Lohse 60 53 50 54.33
55 Brandon Beachy 52 47 65 54.67
56 Jaime Garcia 53 58 56 55.67
57 James McDonald 62 60 55 59.00
58 Lance Lynn 59 57 64 60.00
59 Shaun Marcum 69 54 60 61.00
60 Matt Harvey 63 73 47 61.00
61 Colby Lewis 65 62 63 63.33
62 Cory Luebke 61 70 61 64.00
63 Ivan Nova 54 68 74 65.33
64 Josh Beckett 67 66 66 66.33
65 Johan Santana 58 69 72 66.33
66 Tommy Milone 78 71 51 66.67
67 Paul Maholm 93 65 57 71.67
68 Shelby Miller 71 55 90 72.00
69 Wandy Rodriguez 57 86 73 72.00
70 Phil Hughes 64 78 75 72.33
71 Joe Blanton 66 63 89 72.67
72 Marco Estrada 75 61 88 74.67
73 Trevor Bauer 70 67 91 76.00
74 Mike Minor 95 64 71 76.67
75 Vance Worley 68 90 76 78.00
76 Trevor Cahill 81 85 70 78.67
77 Gavin Floyd 88 82 67 79.00
78 Brandon McCarthy 74 78 87 79.67
79 Bartolo Colon 83 76 86 81.67
80 Bud Norris 90 75 84 83.00
81 Zach Britton 80 84 85 83.00
82 Felix Doubront 77 89 83 83.00
83 Justin Masterson 73 83 96 84.00
84 Wei-Yin Chen 100 91 62 84.33
85 Ryan Vogelsong 86 98 69 84.33
86 Francisco Liriano 96 74 92 87.33
87 Chad Billingsley 94 92 77 87.67
88 Matt Harrison 125 71 68 88.00
89 AJ Griffin 125 88 52 88.33
90 Chris Capuano 82 93 95 90.00
91 Clay Buchholz 97 100 82 93.00
92 Tyler Skaggs 125 81 78 94.67
93 Daniel Hudson 125 87 79 97.00
94 John Lackey 72 94 125 97.00
95 J.A. Happ 89 80 125 98.00
96 Mark Buehrle 125 96 80 100.33
97 Ross Detwiler 85 95 125 101.67
98 Danny Hultzen 91 90 125 102.00
99 Scott Diamond 84 97 125 102.00
100 Homer Bailey 87 125 98 103.33
101 Jhoulys Chacin 92 99 125 105.33
102 Jason Vargas 98 125 96 106.33
103 Mike Leake 99 125 99 107.67
104 Ubaldo Jimenez 76 125 125 108.67
105 Brian Matsuz 125 79 125 109.67
106 Hisashi Iwakuma 79 125 125 109.67
107 Andrew Cashner 125 125 81 110.33
108 Andy Pettitte 125 125 93 114.33
109 Edinson Volquez 125 125 94 114.67
110 Clayton Richard 125 125 95 115.00
111 Rick Porcello 125 125 97 115.67
112 Julio Teheran 125 125 100 116.67
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