It’s now my third year posting my top 125 prospect list here and I have learned a lot by doing so. A list like this can never be perfect (or close to it), but you have to just play the odds. Some top prospects will bust, and some lower-tier guys will blow up. Here are some of the lessons I’ve learned, some thoughts on particularly interesting players, the way the list is formed, and the list itself.
The lesson that anybody who follows prospects learns over and over again is that of risk. There’s no such thing as a true “low” risk prospect, only “lower.” Baseball is different from any other sport in terms of development, and you can’t hang on to a draft label or signing bonus for too long. Players can hit a wall at higher levels of the minor leagues, or start to figure it all out – this happens on an individual basis and is hard to generalize.
My grading system for prospects is a takeaway from the traditional 20-80 scale, but one that I think is a pretty sensible way to compare and contrast prospects. I’m no professional scout, but by going through scouting reports, minor league stats, and reading several other prospect writers, I come up with a “ceiling” and “risk” grade for each player, with the grades on the right.
An “A” is reserved for one of the best players in the game, while an “A-” is also another truly elite grade. “B+” would point to a first-division starter or a #2 pitchers, but not a “star.” A “B” grade points to more of a solid-average player or a #3 starter. “B-” and “C+”‘s point towards an above replacement-value player, but really a second-division starter and not a true difference maker (i.e. #4 or 5 starter). A “C” player, who would never appear in the top 100+, is essentially replacement-value, offering no above-average skills.
The risk grade is pretty self-explanatory with a prospect getting a bump up in their overall grade if they are a lower risk, and moving a rung down if they are a higher risk. By adding the numerical values, the scale really wavers from 0-9. No player in my three years has received a 9, but two years ago both Mike Trout and Bryce Harper got 8s. Last year, Jurickson Profar, Wil Myers, and Dylan Bundy were the only prospects to receive 7s. This year, Byron Buxton, Javier Baez, Taijuan Walker, and Miguel Sano were the top tier and all got 7s – if Buxton stays on track he could very well be getting an 8 next year.
In the rankings, I want to stress that the focus is on the ceilings and risks rather than the individual ranks. The rankings are there for a reason, but the difference between players who have the same grade is pretty minimal in the end.
Rank Name Position Team Ceiling Risk
1 Byron Buxton OF MIN A High 7
2 Javier Baez SS CHC A High 7
3 Taijuan Walker SP SEA A High 7
4 Miguel Sano 3B MIN A High 7
5 Oscar Taveras OF STL B+ Medium 6
6 Archie Bradley SP ARI A Very High 6
7 Xander Bogaerts SS BOS B+ Medium 6
8 Dylan Bundy SP BAL A- High 6
9 Kris Bryant 3B CHC A Very High 6
10 Kevin Gausman SP BAL A- High 6
11 Addison Russell SS OAK A- High 6
12 Robert Stephenson SP CIN A- High 6
13 Noah Syndergaard SP NYM A- High 6
14 Jonathan Gray SP COL A- Very High 5
15 George Springer OF HOU A- Very High 5
16 Carlos Correa SS HOU B+ High 5
17 Jameson Taillon SP PIT A- Very High 5
18 Nick Castellanos 3B DET B+ High 5
19 Francisco Lindor SS CLE B+ High 5
20 Lucas Giolito SP WSH A ABSURD 5
21 Albert Almora OF CHC B+ High 5
22 Clint Frazier OF CLE A ABSURD 5
23 Travis D'Arnaud C NYM B+ High 5
24 Aaron Sanchez SP TOR A- Very High 5
25 Jorge Soler OF CHC A- Very High 5
26 Gregory Polanco OF PIT B+ High 5
27 Kyle Zimmer SP KC A- Very High 5
28 Julio Urias SP LAD A ABSURD 5
29 Mark Appel SP HOU B+ High 5
30 Yordano Ventura SP KC A- Very High 5
31 Garin Cecchini 3B BOS B Medium 5
32 Eddie Butler SP COL A- Very High 5
33 Rougned Odor 2B TEX B+ High 5
34 Alex Meyer SP MIN B+ High 5
35 Kolten Wong 2B STL B Medium 5
36 Joc Pederson OF LAD B+ Very High 4
37 Kohl Stewart SP MIN A- ABSURD 4
38 Andrew Heaney SP MIA B+ Very High 4
39 Marcus Stroman SP TOR B+ Very High 4
40 Matt Wisler SP SD B High 4
41 A.J. Cole SP WSH B+ Very High 4
42 Austin Hedges C SD B High 4
43 Max Fried SP SD B+ Very High 4
44 Brian Goodwin OF WSH B+ Very High 4
45 Tyler Glasnow SP PIT A- ABSURD 4
46 Raul Mondesi SS KC B+ Very High 4
47 Jonathan Singleton 1B HOU B+ Very High 4
48 Austin Meadows OF PIT A- ABSURD 4
49 David Dahl OF COL A- ABSURD 4
50 Rymer Liriano OF SD B+ Very High 4
51 Corey Seager SS LAD B+ Very High 4
52 Jackie Bradley Jr. OF BOS B High 4
53 C.J. Edwards SP CHC B+ Very High 4
54 Colin Moran 3B MIA B High 4
55 Alen Hanson 2B PIT B High 4
56 Maikel Franco 3B PHI B+ Very High 4
57 Kyle Crick SP SF B+ Very High 4
58 Phillip Ervin OF CIN B+ Very High 4
59 Taylor Guerrieri SP TB A- ABSURD 4
60 Jorge Alfaro C TEX A- ABSURD 4
61 Henry Owens SP BOS B+ Very High 4
62 Gary Sanchez C NYY B+ Very High 4
63 Lucas Sims SP ATL B+ Very High 4
64 Matt Barnes SP BOS B High 4
65 Lance McCullers SP HOU A- ABSURD 4
66 Carlos Martinez SP STL B+ Very High 4
67 Jake Marisnick OF MIA B High 4
68 Danny Hultzen SP SEA B High 4
69 Delino DeShields 2B HOU B+ Very High 4
70 Jesse Biddle SP PHI B+ Very High 4
71 Hunter Harvey SP BAL B+ Very High 4
72 Jake Odorizzi SP TB B High 4
73 Rosell Herrera SS COL B High 4
74 Justin Nicolino SP MIA B High 4
75 Zach Lee SP LAD B+ Very High 4
76 Josh Bell OF PIT B+ Very High 4
77 Eddie Rosario 2B MIN B High 4
78 Stephen Piscotty OF STL B High 4
79 Arismendy Alcantara 2B CHC B High 4
80 Mookie Betts 2B BOS B High 4
81 Jimmy Nelson SP MIL B+ Very High 4
82 Jose Berrios SP MIN B+ Very High 4
83 D.J. Peterson 1B SEA B High 4
84 Raimel Tapia OF COL A- ABSURD 4
85 Blake Swihart C BOS B High 4
86 Rafael Montero SP NYM B+ Very High 4
87 Mike Foltynewicz SP HOU B+ Very High 4
88 Nick Williams OF TEX B+ Very High 4
89 Clayton Blackburn SP SF B+ Very High 4
90 Dominic Smith 1B NYM B High 4
91 Lewis Thorpe SP MIN A- ABSURD 4
92 Sean Manaea SP KC A- ABSURD 4
93 Chris Owings SS ARI B- High 3
94 Allen Webster SP BOS B- High 3
95 Hunter Renfroe OF SD B Very High 3
96 Dan Vogelbach 1B CHC B Very High 3
97 Braden Shipley SP ARI B Very High 3
98 Anthony Ranaudo SP BOS B Very High 3
99 Casey Kelly SP SD B Very High 3
100 JP Crawford SS PHI B+ ABSURD 3
101 Ryan McMahon 3B COL B+ ABSURD 3
102 Mason Williams OF NYY B Very High 3
103 Taylor Lindsey 2B LAA B- High 3
104 Luiz Gohara SP SEA B+ ABSURD 3
105 Victor Sanchez SP SEA B Very High 3
106 Hunter Dozier SS KC B Very High 3
107 Michael Choice OF TEX B- High 3
108 Bubba Starling OF KC B+ ABSURD 3
109 Daniel Norris SP TOR B+ ABSURD 3
110 Jake Thompson SP DET B+ ABSURD 3
111 Cesar Puello OF NYM B Very High 3
112 James Paxton SP SEA B Very High 3
113 Joey Gallo 3B TEX B Very High 3
114 Marco Gonzales SP STL B- High 3
115 Hak-Ju Lee SS TB B- High 3
116 Alex Colome SP TB B- High 3
117 Michael Ynoa SP OAK B+ ABSURD 3
118 Lewis Brinson OF TEX B+ ABSURD 3
119 Alex Gonzalez SP TEX B Very High 3
120 Erik Johnson SP CHW B Very High 3
121 Josmil Pinto C MIN B- High 3
122 Cody Anderson SP CLE B- High 3
123 Eric Jagielo 3B NYY B Very High 3
124 Cory Spangenberg 2B SD B- High 3
125 Christian Bethancourt C ATL B- High 3
Honorable Mentions (In Alphabetical Order): Aaron Judge, Bobby Wahl, Chad Bettis, Chris Anderson, D.J. Davis, Devon Travis, Edwin Escobar, Enny Romero, Franklin Barreto, Jesse Winker, Jonathan Schoop, J.R. Graham, Kyle Parker, Luis Sardinas, Matt Purke, Mike Olt, Rafael De Paula, Reese McGuire Richie Shaffer, Tim Anderson, Trey Ball, Tyler Austin, Tyrone Taylor, Victor Roache, Yorman Rodriguez
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Is somebody missing?? Ah, yes. The famous Billy Hamilton was basically impossible for me to slot into the rankings, so I wanted to dedicate a quick write-up here to him (my colleague Greg Jewett had a great and more detailed write-up here).
What makes Hamilton hard to grade is the varying degrees of risk and ceiling between all of his tools. His speed, as we all know, is off the charts with no risk of changing. His hit tool, however, is another story. I’m pretty pessimistic about his hit tool and .256 mark in Triple-A last year, and am personally going to be letting other people draft him in nearly any fantasy draft. That said, his fantasy upside is immense and he could singlehandedly destroy the player rater.
A couple other quick hits on players I’m pretty bold on in comparison to other writers and rankings:
- Javier Baez at #2 may seem a tad high, but I just have absolute faith in his bat. His bat speed is elite, his production has been awesome, and every scout who has seen him raves.
- Dylan Bundy remains in my top 10 – I was extremely high on him before, and Tommy John only changes his risk, not his ceiling.
- Lucas Giolito at #20 is somebody that I’m really rooting for. His arm is electric, and he could easily be in the top 5 next year.
- Some players who haven’t received much hype yet, but will, include: Raimel Tapia, Lewis Thorpe, Sean Manaea, and Ryan McMahon. They could each rocket up the list with strong performances this year and more exposure.
Matt Cott is the co-founder of RotoAnalysis. Comment below or Tweet @KidCotti21 or @RotoAnalysis with any questions or comments about the list!
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Photo Credit: http://www.milb.com/images/2012/11/08/6nf8C5v2.jpg
Great list! Huge fantasy baseball fan and I keep an eye out for prospects for my dynasty league. Few prospects that I am fairly high on that I did not see are Miguel Almonte, Chris Stratton, and Jake Marsnick. Also at 3rd overall, is Walker’s ceiling really a #1 SPer? Not counting Tanaka, Walker/Bradley seem like the consensus 1-2 pitching prospects but more of a Stephenson, Syndergaad, and Heaney fan than Walker.
Thanks for the several new names to add to my watch list!
Really surprised not to see PIerce Johnson on your list??? He seems to project as at least a #3 starter and seems to pitch well in big games.
He put up some good stats last year, but pitching as a 22 year old in low A ball isn’t all that impressive. He was also good in high A, but his control weakened. The real test will come this year in my opinion
I love the idea behind this type of list. This will be really helpful for me in one of my dynasty leagues which has few prospect slots and therefore the ceiling ranking is something I will be factoring in.
Great list- thanks!
I’m surprised that you gave Urias an “A” ceiling. I know how young he is and how impressive his stats were in low A, but I don’t think he has the physical projection or stuff to be a #1 starter.
I think that Lindor, Almora, Cecchini, Odor, and Wong are too high.
I also think that Alfaro and Tapia are too low considering their crazy high ceilings. I am surprised by how low Carlos Martinez is ranked, and I think Vogelbach and Harvey should be significantly higher.
Thanks for the input Chris! I talked to a few of my friends and other writers about Urias and knew the A ceiling would be controversial. I just thought that doing what he did at age 16 is ridiculous and that it’d be silly to put a cap on his potential from a production standpoint. That said, all reports I read pegged him as more of a 2 and realistically he won’t reach that A ceiling. However, it was an easy way to move him up the list and I’m just a huge fan of his talent.
Cool system of ranking, but how is Carlos correa a B+ and outside the top 10?? He’s a pure A in my opinion. Good work though.
At #16 I definitely like Correa, but I don’t LOVE him. He, Addison Russell, and Francisco Lindor were all very close and Correa was right on the border of B+/A- as a ceiling (that’s why he was one of the top rated 5′s). In terms of his tools, his power is still a question mark for me. The Astros have a lot to look forward to with him and the rest of their system.
First off, I suspect the initial rank solely based on success at whatever level they are at in the minors. I like the handicapping effect but I think the system and scoring need to be reset based on the absence of low risk and the low numbers of Medium. I suppose you could call a Tanaka rookie type player a low risk, but I’d rather establish a guideline for why a handicap is set at low med or high. Say a highly successful pitcher playing he PCL would get a bump or something….. if data could be genericized to represent risk factors across pitchers and hitter, you could be on to something (he says while waiting for Logan Morrison to return some bloody value on some other 5 star rating I bought into). I think if anyone in the business of baseball did a retrospective meta-study on data points which could be success indicators it could prove interesting.
Bryce, you make some really good points. With some players, risk will be very different across each of their tools. Going even deeper into the tools would definitely be a better way to accurately portray and then track their development. It’s just a big undertaking and going through the entire minor leagues would be impossible without making it your full time job.
I try to limit the low and medium risk grades just so I don’t get burned. In reality, the “high” grade means I think that prospect has a pretty damn good shot at reaching their potential. Thanks for the feedback (and good luck with LoMo…)!
I’ve noticed that Marcus Semien has been excluded from most of these lists, however I don’t understand how a 22 year old second baseman/Shortstop coming off a season with 21 home runs, 26 stolen bases and 100 bb’s over three levels including the majors is not rated higher?
While production like that definitely does have to be respected (the fact that he walked more than he struck out is also very impressive), reports on him were pretty negative. He lacks a “plus” tool from scouts and could end up carving out a solid little career, but would have a B- or so ceiling in my book.
Raimel Tapia new to me. I’ll have to looking him up. Great list, reasoning’s and explanations. One thing perhaps I noticed is I’d flip Max Fried and Kyle Crick in at #57 & #43… Just believe Crick has more upside, be there sooner and with less risk. Other than that, OUTSTANDING!
Thanks John! Those are two interesting arms, and since they both ended up getting 4′s I think that they’re definitely very close in stock.
That said, Crick’s command is a bigger concern than anything Fried has showed so far. Fried threw a lot of innings for a 19 year old and really struggled towards the end of the year (5.2 K/9 in August & September). I read some very encouraging reports on him and he was one of my favorite guys coming out of the draft last year. Both will be interesting to watch this year and both could end up in the top 20-25 for next year’s list.