2013′s Top 125 Prospects

Whether it is for a dynasty keeper league, pure fanhood, or random perusing, prospects are always a fun and interesting part of the baseball world. For the second consecutive year, I decided to produce a list of my top 125 prospects.

Profar's combination of pro-ready talent and projectable tools gave him the edge to be my #1 overall prospect.

Profar’s combination of pro-ready talent and projectable tools gave him the edge to be my #1 overall prospect.

This is neither a fantasy guide nor a straight real-life evaluation. These are my general thoughts in terms of who I like, who I don’t and spinning to be applicable to both realms. Is Austin Hedges a better real-life prospect than Jake Marisnick due to his defense? Absolutely. But Marisnick also carries that type of power/speed combo, 5-tool skill set that fantasy owners drool over. Those two are a random example, and go back to back at #71 and #72 on my list.

As I repeat from last year, “In no way am I truly qualified as a prospect evaluator. In my time watching baseball, however, I have seen trends among prospects and love to take my own opinion. The way I generally arrived to my observations, and eventual rankings, was by looking over statistics, videos, and scouting reports from all over.”

My main issue with many prospect lists is how vague they are – while scouting is far from concrete, I wanted to have a scale to accompany my list. I do this in two ways – a ceiling grade and a risk grade. Ultimately these are what differentiate prospects and lead to efficiently finding major league success.

Ceiling Grade

The ultimate measure of a prospect is exactly how good they can be if everything works out. Regardless of their chances of reaching their potential, just how good they can be will ultimately determine most of their value. Starting at Rookie ball and advancing to Triple-A is a long process, and obviously a player’s value and skills will change and develop as he grows. Projecting that growth to what it can contribute in the major leagues is the key to determining the “ranking” of any prospect, and is what I attempt to communicate in my “ceiling” grade for every member of the list. An “A” is reserved for one of the best players in the game, while an “A-” is also another truly elite grade. “B+” would point to a first-division starter or a #2 pitchers, but not a “star.” A “B” grade points to more of a solid-average player or a #3 starter. “B-” and “C+”‘s point towards an above replacement-value player, but really a second-division starter and not a true difference maker (i.e. #4 starter). A “C” player, who would never appear in the top 100+, is essentially replacement-value, offering no above-average skills.

Risk Grade [1]

While a player’s ceiling is the be-all, end-all of their value, the chance they will reach that potential has a major impact towards their ranking. A 50% chance that a player will be a 2 WAR player versus a 25% chance that another player will be a 4 WAR player is the classic dichotomy of risk. But with my grade of “risk,” ranging from “absurd” (reserved for the youngest, rawest prospects) to “low” (for the few that are as close to sure things as you will find in the minors). I set “high” as the average, neutral rating because when it comes down to it, all prospects have a good amount of risk surrounding their potential ceiling.

As much as I love my list, I’m ready to miss on a ton of guys — the lower half of prospect lists traditionally only produces about 10-20% that become MLB regulars. My numerical scale works as such to start with ceiling and then adjust for the risk to give my best shot at ordering the entire list and targeting potential future studs:

Screen Shot 2013-02-07 at 1.16.05 AM

Screen Shot 2013-02-07 at 3.07.42 AM

Bryce Harper, Mike Trout, and Matt Moore all received 8’s last year [2]. This year, only 3 prospects even got 7’s: Jurickson Profar, Wil Myers, and Dylan Bundy. I think the minors are still relatively strong and that this last draft was stacked with some interesting talent, but those three guys from last year can’t be matched. This number is not set in stone for ranking prospects, but is the general method i used to narrow down my intial list of over 200 players. Without further ado, here is my top 125 (with 25 honorable mentions).

RankNamePositionTeamCeilingRisk
1Jurickson ProfarSSTEXB+Low7
2Wil MyersOFTBA-Medium7
3Dylan BundySPBALA-Medium7
4Gerrit ColeSPPITA-High6
5Oscar TaverasOFSTLB+Medium6
6Zack WheelerSPNYMA-High6
7Travis D'ArnaudCNYMB+Medium6
8Christian YellichOFMIAB+Medium6
9Taijuan WalkerSPSEAA-Very High5
10Jose FernandezSPMIAA-Very High5
11Xander BogaertsSSBOSA-High6
12Billy HamiltonOFCINBMedium5
13Miguel Sano3BMINA-Very High5
14Tyler SkaggsSPARIB+High5
15Jameson TaillonSPPITA-Very High5
16Byron BuxtonOFMINA-Very High5
17Francisco LindorSSCLEB+High5
18Shelby MillerSPSTLB+High5
19Nick Castellanos3B/OFDETB+High5
20Julio TeheranSPATLB+High5
21Mike ZuninoCSEABMedium5
22Javier BaezSSCHCA-Very High5
23Anthony Rendon3BWSHB+High5
24Jonathan Singleton1BHOUB+High5
25Archie BradleySPARIA-Very High5
26Aaron SanchezSPTORA-Very High5
27Mike Olt3B/1BTEXB+High5
28David DahlOFCOLA-Very High5
29Addison RussellSSOAKB+Very High4
30Trevor BauerSPCLEB+High5
31Kyle ZimmerSPKCA-Very High5
32Bubba StarlingOFKCA-Very High5
33Carlos CorreaSSHOUB+High5
34Noah SyndergaardSPNYMB+High5
35Albert AlmoraOFCHCBHigh4
36Jorge SolerOFCHCA-ABSURD4
37Taylor GuerrieriSPTBB+Very High4
38Max FriedSPSDB+Very High4
39Kevin GausmanSPBALB+Very High4
40George SpringerOFHOUB+Very High4
41Leonys MartinOFTEXBMedium5
42Mason WilliamsOFNYYB+Very High4
43Chris ArcherSPTBBHigh4
44Brian GoodwinOFWSHB+Very High4
45Alen HansonSSPITB+Very High4
46Lucas GiolitoSPWSHA-ABSURD4
47Danny HultzenSPSEABHigh4
48Trevor RosenthalSPSTLBHigh4
49Nolan Arenado3BCOLBHigh4
50Gregory PolancoOFPITB+Very High4
51Yasiel PuigOFLADA-ABSURD4
52Oswaldo ArciaOFMINBHigh4
53Carlos MartinezSPSTLB+Very High4
54Matt BarnesSPBOSBHigh4
55Jackie BradleyOFBOSB+Very High4
56Kolten Wong2BSTLB-Medium4
57Robert StephensonSPCINBHigh4
58Nick FranklinSSSEABHigh4
59Michael ChoiceOFOAKBHigh4
60Jesse BiddleSPPHIB+Very High4
61Kaleb Cowart3BLAAB+Very High4
62Jake OdorizziSPTBBHigh4
63Oswaldo ArciaOFMINBHigh4
64Aaron HicksOFMINB+Very High4
65AJ ColeSPWSHB+Very High4
66Rymer LirianoOFSDBHigh4
67Corey Seager3BLADB+Very High4
68Didi GregoriusSSARIB-Medium4
69Kyle CrickSPSFB+Very High4
70Tyler AustinOFNYYB+Very High4
71Jake MarisnickOFMIABHigh4
72Austin HedgesCSDBHigh4
73Andrew HeaneySPMIABHigh4
74Justin NicolinoSPMIABHigh4
75Robbie ErlinSPSDB-Medium4
76Courtney HawkinsOFCWSB+Very High4
77Alex MeyerSPMINB+Very High4
78Tony CingraniSPCINBHigh4
79Zach LeeSPLADBHigh4
80Martin PerezSPTEXBHigh4
81Kyle GibsonSPMINBHigh4
82Grant GreenOFOAKBHigh4
83Eddie Rosario2B/OFMINBVery High3
84Wily PeraltaSPMILBHigh4
85Gary SanchezCNYYBVery High3
86Josh BellOFPITB+Very High4
87Jonathan SchoopSSBALBHigh4
88Luis HerediaSPPITB+ABSURD3
89Trevor StorySSCOLBVery High3
90Jose CamposSPNYYB+ABSURD3
91Matt Davidson3BARIB-High3
92Henry OwensSPBOSBVery High3
93Slade HeathcottOFNYYBVery High3
94Allen WebsterSPBOSB-High3
95Bruce RondonRPDETC+Low4
96Alex ColomeSPTBBVery High3
97Joey Gallo3BTEXBVery High3
98Cody BuckelSPTEXB-High3
99Jedd Gyorko2B/3BSDB-High3
100Jorge AlfaroCTEXB+ABSURD3
101Delino DeShields2BHOUBVery High3
102Michael WachaSPSTLBVery High3
103Yordano VenturaSPKCBVery High3
104Brett JacksonOFCHCBVery High3
105Hak-Ju LeeSSTBB-High3
106Deven MarreroSSBOSBVery High3
107Richie Shaffer3BTBBVery High3
108Wilmer Flores3BNYMB-High3
109Marcell OzunaOFMIABVery High3
110Luis Sardinas2B/SSTEXBVery High3
111Jarred CosartSPHOUBVery High3
112Clayton BlackburnSPSFBVery High3
113Dorssys PaulinoSSCLEBVery High3
114Ronald GuzmanOFTEXB+ABSURD3
115Nomar MazaraOFTEXB+ABSURD3
116Angelo Gumbs2BNYYBVery High3
117Rougned Odor2BTEXB+ABSURD3
118Manny BanuelosSPNYYBVery High3
119Casey KellySPSDBVery High3
120Dan Vogelbach1BCHCBVery High3
121Luke JacksonSPTEXBVery High3
122James PaxtonSPSEABVery High3
123Gary BrownOFSFBVery High3
124Brandon NimmoOFNYMB+ABSURD3
125CJ Cron1BLAAB-High3

Honorable Mentions: Matt Adams, Tim Beckham, Lewis Brinson, Gavin Cecchini, Andrew Chafin, Daniel Corcino, D.J. Davis, Avisail Garcia, Onelki Garcia, Sonny Gray, Adeiny Hechavarria, Tryell Jenkins, Tommy Joseph, Max Kepler, Lance McCullers, Roberto Osuna, Brad Peacock, Victor Roache, Eduardo Rodriguez, Joe Ross, Cory Spangenberg, Chris Stratton, Marcus Stroman, Blake Swihart, Drew Vettleson

# of Prospects by Team:

  • Arizona Diamondbacks – 4
  • Atlanta Braves – 1
  • Baltimore Orioles – 3
  • Boston Red Sox – 6
  • Chicago Cubs – 5
  • Cincinnati Reds – 4
  • Cleveland Indians – 3
  • Colorado Rockies – 3
  • Chicago White Sox – 1
  • Detroit Tigers – 2
  • Houston Astros – 5
  • Kansas City Royals – 3
  • Los Angeles Angels – 2
  • Los Angeles Dodgers – 3
  • Miami Marlins – 6
  • Milwaukee Brewers – 1
  • Minnesota Twins – 8
  • New York Mets – 5
  • New York Yankees – 7
  • Oakland Athletics – 3
  • Philadelphia Phillies – 1
  • Pittsburgh Pirates – 6
  • San Diego Padres – 6
  • Seattle Mariners – 5
  • San Francisco Giants – 3
  • St. Louis Cardinals – 6
  • Tampa Bay Rays – 7
  • Texas Rangers – 11
  • Toronto Blue Jays – 1
  • Washington Nationals – 4

# of Prospects by Position:

  • Catcher – 6
  • First Base — 3
  • Second Base — 6
  • Shortstop – 15
  • Third Base – 11
  • Outfield – 33
  • Starting Pitcher – 50
  • Relief Pitcher – 1

Matt Cott is a co-founder of RotoAnalysis. Follow him on Twitter @KidCotti21 and find his work all season long on CBSPhilly.com and RotoAnalysis.com!


[1] I learned a lot from last year’s rankings. The first was that “low” risk is VERY hard to truly say about a prospect. Sure I put Mike Trout as a low risk guy, but so were Trevor Bauer and Julio Teheran. I rejiggered my expectations for this year and ended up with a higher average risk than last year. As I continue to do this year after year, surely I will make more of these types of adjustments.

[2] When we remodeled the site in July last summer, our old tables were lost and reformatted. Apologies for the awkward formatting of last year’s list.
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22 Responses to 2013′s Top 125 Prospects

  1. Johnny March 22, 2013 at 17:46 #

    Love the list. First what I agree with.

    1) You’re ranking of Bauer as a B+
    2) You’re ranking of Puig as a A-

    Two problems I have though:

    1) Jedd Gyorko’s minor league numbers warrant a much higher placing. His 24 home runs in the PCL don’t indicate he’ll have the same success in the majors. But the year before outside of the PCL in AA he was better hitting 30 home runs. He may or may not put up more than 20 home runs a season in San Diego but with 2B eligibility the guy has big time value. He could bat in the high 200s, smack 35 to 40 doubles and hit 20+ home runs with a handful of steals along the way. Plus the guy has plus plate discipline and slugging percentages consistently in the 500s. At 24 this guy is not too old. Gyorko’s comparable to Kyle Seager who had a huge 2012 at 24. You’ve definitely underrated him while Travis D’Arnaud is a tad bit overrated due to this a half season playing in the hitters haven PCL.

    2 Billy Hamilton is not a ‘medium’ risk. He’s a high risk. Sure he’ll probably make the majors at some point this season. But will he really stick? Sure he can steal a base every time he’s on base but first you have to get on base. This guy could barely get on base all spring training. If he ever gets on base everyone knows the guy’s running. He’s not gonna be all that difficult to stop. The Reds have a team full of players who can hit and steal a base. Are they going to sit Choo to play Hamilton because he could steal 5 bases a game if he gets on base? No. If Hamilton doesn’t improve his hitting then he’s going to be somewhere between Bonafacio and Dee Gordon. I don’t see him as anything more than a super utility player or pinch runner. For those reasons I believe he is a high risk/high reward.

    I do enjoy and agree with a lot of your list but I feel like prospects are all listed the same along the lines of the general consensus. You’ll never see anywhere a list without Profar at number one when it’s clear the guy’s not going to be better than Dylan Bundy (think Strasberg), Shelby Miller (think Kershaw) and Gerrit Cole (think Price). In my opinion the best prospects closest to being MLB ready will turn out to be 1 A Bundy 2 -A Puig 3 A-Miller 4 A- Cole 5 A-Tavares 6 A-Profar 7 A-Fernandez 8 B+ Bauer 9 B+ Wheeler 10 B+ Myers. As much as I see Bauer flaming out I still can’t look past the fact that his minor stats are comparable to both Strasberg and Kershaw’s at the same age and are much better than Price’s at both age 22 and 23. To me, Bauer is the biggest risk on the list. He could flame out or be right up there with Bundy.

    • Matt Cott March 24, 2013 at 00:02 #

      Glad you liked it and appreciate the comments!

      1) yeah I hear you on Gyorko, he may be a touch too low. He’s in a weird tier towards the end of the top 100 where it’s hard to balance raw younger guys versus polished older guys. He’s definitely a guy who will be fantasy-relevant and while I’m not as bullish as you for 35-40 doubles and 20 homers, he’s solid.

      2) I debated that one for a little while. When it came down to it though when I looked at risk I looked at the gap between their future possible tools and their current tools. Hamilton’s speed is already at that 80 grade level and while his hit tool is a risk, the speed was enough for me to leave him a medium. One other thing people don’t talk about is how much he walked last year. If he keeps that up he’ll be a STUD.

      And finally I like my rankings because they can show the difference between Profar and Bundy, Cole etc. I put Profar #1 but also had him with a lower ceiling than those guys. Bauer’s a pretty unique case because of his weird repertoire — I’m definitely still high on him but this year is a make or break time for him.

  2. ravenmadd March 18, 2013 at 05:39 #

    where in a fantasy draft do you start drafting prospects?……which round?…..love your idea!

    • Matt Cott March 23, 2013 at 23:28 #

      Really depends on the format and the player. For a standard 10 or 12 team league I’m steering clear or waiting for mid-season pickups usually. What type of league are you thinking about here?

  3. Mark March 6, 2013 at 18:02 #

    Nice list Matt. I have included it as part of my composite top prospect listing at:

    mlbcpi.blogspot.com

  4. Cliff February 11, 2013 at 14:44 #

    the fact that you have Profar’s ceiling below that of Yaisel Puig, a guy most scouts believe the Dodgers way overpaid to get, is absurd….maybe in fantasy, but not in real life. Profar might be the surest bet to have the highest WAR out of all these guys 5 years from now.

    • Matt Cott February 12, 2013 at 00:58 #

      Did you read the whole article Cliff? Not only did I rank Profar #1, meaning yes I think he is the surest bet to have the highest WAR of all these guys 5 years from now, but I outlined exactly what my ceiling and risk grades meant.

      There is a very very very small chance Puig ends up being as good as he “could” be. But Profar’s ceiling isn’t quite that of a superstar — he is likely never going to hit for more than 20 home runs or slug over .500. But playing up the middle with his batting eye to go with his hit tool makes him a stud and my favorite player in the minors.

      Puig’s a mystery right now. We have a tiny sample on him but I am admittedly more optimistic than most on his potential. We will know a lot more by even May, but I felt comfortable leaving his ceiling that high as long as it carried the “ABSURD” risk level next to it.

  5. RobbyRobDU February 8, 2013 at 11:23 #

    Great Read!

    Thanks for putting all of this work in!

    Two things I wanted to ask, and I see both a LOT:

    Oscar Taveras has a WILD swing, I don’t understand why this seems to be of no concern to most prospect evaluators, yet Billy Hamilton’s steadily improving hit tool is constantly considered questionable…discrepancy one.

    Discrepancy TWO: Nolan Arenado slipped a little and had an off year to start, Castellanos started off crazy hot (albeit still not showing the power he should be showing by now, and in the OF….EEEKK!!) so why does Arenado’s coming back down to earth a bit and finishing the year relatively strong not move him back up lists, yet Castellanos who did a NOSEDIVE in AA looking like he couldn’t hit off the Tee not drop him further in the eyes of many? A couple weeks hitting .400 in High-A….It’s not like we didn’t know he could hit…?

    I like how you include risk and ceiling, I love the aggressive rankings of 2012 draftees, and I love that you aren’t jumping ship on the largest and shiniest tool box in all of baseball (Bubba Starling) after one season that wasn’t even bad.

    I think there are a couple more guys that could have been Low risk, and I don’t necessarily think Soler and Puig are absurd risks (have done nicely since they came over) but I’m not just going to throw all my opinions out there.

    All in all an amazing list and obviously tons of thought put in! Appreciate it greatly brother!!

    • Matt Cott February 8, 2013 at 13:49 #

      Really appreciate the support! As for your comments,

      I think I am slightly lower on Taveras than many, but you can’t argue with his results as a 20 year old in AA — the most encouraging thing too was his K rate being cut down to just over 10%. I’m not in love with the guy but he definitely deserves to be in the top 5.

      A guy I do love is Hamilton, who should quickly become one of the most exciting players to watch in the league. His speed is obviously an easy 80, but his hit tool is still close to average, it’s his speed which ups his BABIP and makes it useful. #12 is a near-stud level guy.

      Yeah, not sure what people expected from Bubba. He struck out a lot but his raw talent is absurd, and I can’t wait to watch him continue to improve.

      Soler and Puig are interesting guys, and I like both. It’s quotes like these that make me extra nervous though (via Keith Law): “having shaken the man’s hand, he’s one of the oldest-looking 21-year-olds I’ve ever met.”

  6. Ryan February 8, 2013 at 03:15 #

    As a Mariner’s fan I suggest you take a closer look at our system. Brad Miller, Brandon Maurer, Victor Sanchez, and Stephen Romero all beg your consideration for top 125. The exclusion of all four of them– and the inclusion of so many young, high-bust types– says to me that you haven’t looked close enough. There is absolutely no way that the hoard of texas teenagers you put in the mix are better than the AA badasses Miller, Maurer, and Romero. With that mentality, please play in my fantasy league!

    • Matt Cott February 8, 2013 at 13:34 #

      Definitely not denying an east coast bias (New Yorker talking), but not a huge fan of any of those guys.

      Romero and Maurer were definitely in consideration and are good — they were close to being honorable mentions. Romero has a nice hit tool but has been old at every level and I’m not sure he’ll be much more than a utility guy. Take his and Miller’s stats in the CAL league (notorious for inflated hitting stats) with a grain of salt.

      Maurer has potential but is replaceable as a low-end 3/4 starter. There are a lot of guys like him but yes, he easily and maybe should have been included. Sanchez is a guy like Heredia that is so far away, without quite as a high a ceiling in my opinion(I’d list him as a B ABSURD guy at this point, which is just shy). Too much can happen to a 17 year old pitcher, but another good season and he’ll be on the list next year.

      • Ryan February 12, 2013 at 12:14 #

        Maybe there is bias and maybe there is not, and maybe you don’t like low-floor players. Ultimately I think it’s a matter of you not doing your homework.

        Victor Sanchez is six months younger than Luis Heredia, (a rather dramatic six months considering the extreme youth), and Sanchez pitched just as well as Heredia at the same level, with one less year of pro experience. Heredia is ranked 88th and has the potential to be a #1/2 pitcher. Sanchez is more of a #2/3 guy, but already has good control and plus pitches, and is not in your top 150, including honorable mentions. You don’t have to dream on Sanchez to see the possibilities down the road. He’s clearly talented at a very young age, (just turned 18 two weeks ago).

        Brad Miller has done nothing but hit. He hit in college, hit in A-ball, hit in AA. He has a decent shot to stick at shortstop, and would surely make a great 2B if he needs to move off-position. He is within a year of the major leagues. He could potentially hit lead-off with his strong batting eye, 20 SB speed, and would bring 10-15 homer pop for good measure. Highly athletic. Great attitude. Consistent performer. 2nd round pick.

        Brandon Maurer pitched 150 innings between 2009-2011 due to injury, but when he pitched he was very good and young for his levels. In 2012 he pitched in AA at age 21/22, and in the second half of the season he was dominant. He was named Southern League pitcher of the Year. He has four average or better pitches, with a plus fastball (tops out in the mid-90′s), a slider that flashes plus, and an average curve and change. Considering his lack of experience d/t injury, it is no surprise he doesn’t make a ton of top 100 lists, but look how far/fast he has come in spite of this. He has a ceiling of a #2 starting pitcher– absolutely not a “low-end 3/4 starter– and an injury-free 2013 will land him on everyone’s prospect map.

        What more do you want from Stefen Romero? He got hurt in college and missed significant time; the M’s drafted him anyway. He didn’t play pro ball until 2011 despite being a 2010 draft choice. He had a fine first year in A-ball, then blew up in his second year, finishing at AA with a over 1.000 OPS. He can play infield or outfield, maybe not that well, but he isn’t a disaster. He’s confident and has a great swing. He wasn’t exactly old for his levels, just not young– he was a college guy and the M’s haven’t rushed him. Look at Matt Adams, Mike Olt, and others. Romero projects to hit for decent average and power at the major league level, whether as an OF, 2B, 3B, 1B, or UTL. A star in the making? No, not likely. A top-150 player? Hard to argue against it, as you proved.

        I’m not saying I expect all four of these guys to be included in a top-150 list, (although I believe they should be). But not one of them? They all project as major league players. Not bullpen guys. Not guys who flame out in A-ball. Three of them might make their MLB debuts in 2013! And your list is full of players who haven’t proven jack s–t, or have questionable hit tools, or who have done nothing but struggle by comparison. You do realize that all four of them dominated their respective leagues, won awards, and they were all age appropriate for their leagues.

        And to top it off, Banuelos ranked over Paxton. You just might be a pioneer with that ranking. Paxton has a higher ceiling and didn’t just have Tommy John surgery.

        So, there, I guess. You have seven ranked yankees, (from a middling farm system), and five ranked M’s, (from a top farm system). And you rank the M’s lower than most. Bias? Ignorance? Eh… as if you care.

        • Ryan February 12, 2013 at 12:21 #

          That was supposed to read ‘high-floor players’.

        • Matt Cott February 12, 2013 at 13:20 #

          I think you’re taking the exact rankings a little too seriously. This is a very tiered system if you look at their “grade” on the left side” The “7″s of Profar, Bundy, & Myers are a step above the “6″s (like Taijuan), and so on down. #118 to #122 (Banuelos to Paxton) doesn’t mean I think Banuelos is so much better than Paxton, I just like him a little more.

          There are a TON of “3″s in the minors, and I believe all 4 of your guys would probably end up as “3″s, which means they would be B+/ABSURD, B/Very High, or B-/High. Its nitpicking to truly differentiate the chances of a lot of guys on these tiers, and the whole point of my rankings was that these sort of tiers exist in the minor leagues, and looking at rankings from a purely 1-100 basis is a crude and short-sighted analysis. Perhaps I shouldn’t even number the list next year.

          I really appreciate your comments and probably didn’t do quite enough homework on the Mariners system — like I said earlier, there is inherent bias in my work just from the exposure I have to certain games, scouting, and other work from my location. The same applies to you as a Mariners fan who I’m guessing lives on the West Coast.

  7. saintly February 7, 2013 at 22:35 #

    Interesting list. The one very major oversight that I noticed was no arodys vizcaino. I believe he’s a top50 guy but surely top100.

    • Matt Cott February 8, 2013 at 02:17 #

      good point. I had originally kept him out because I thought he lost his prospect standing, but he’s spent 22 days on an MLB roster (not counting expanded rosters in September), less than half of the 45 needed. I still think he probably ends up in the pen, but he would slot in the 80s or so.

  8. Carl February 7, 2013 at 21:10 #

    I like this methodology – nice work. A few comments:
    1) You have Oswaldo Arcia listed twice (52 & 63)
    2) I’d argue T. Rosenthal’s risk should be lowered to Medium, if not Low. There’s little doubt he will succeed out of the bullpen, slightly more doubt he’d succeed as a #3 out of the rotation. No question about his stuff, size, and he showed it last season.
    3) “Very High” risk on Jackie Bradley seems overdone. Most scouts believe he’ll hit, and know for a fact he’ll be at least an above average defensive CF. If anything, I’d lower his upside to “B” and his risk to Medium/High.
    4) G. Green at #82? Most see him as a utility guy, at best, and I’d lower his ceiling to C+ at it’s peak
    5) I’d replace Green with Gyorko (99) – he’s a pretty sure bet to hit for a decent average and some pop, and if he somehow can pass as a 2B, he’s well above league average with the bat. I’d say his risk is medium.

    Good list.

    • Matt Cott February 8, 2013 at 02:31 #

      1–Somebody else pointed this out to me. My bad on Arcia, must have happened as I was switching some guys around — should be fixed tomorrow morning.

      2–Very fair on Rosenthal. As I talked about, giving Medium or Low risk to a pitcher is just a very hard jump. He’s definitely a safer “High” risk guy, but his velo will drop out of the pen and I didn’t find it justified to call him one of the top 5 safest SPs in the minors.

      3–Also a fair criticism — his batter’s eye is great, but .275 in AA is very “eh” for a 22 year old. If I listed his ceiling as just a B I would have made him “High,” but to get to that B+ ceiling? I still think thats a relative longshot, and stand by the “Very High” (comparable to Mason Williams & Brian Goodwin).

      4–This is Green’s last chance, but he’s produced at every level and had enough good reports that I felt he deserved a back-end top 100 nod.

      5–While positional difference is definitely worth something, Gyorko doesn’t have quite as much pop has his 24 homers last year show. his BABIP was inflated and is another guy who’s on the old side for his level.

      Thanks for the comments!

  9. james February 7, 2013 at 19:35 #

    nice list, but you are right about the risk thing. Even sure fire top 5 guys are generally only 50/50 on panning out as anywhere near what we expect. Look at baseball america, and you realize that of the top 10, 3 become elite, 3 become good, 2 become regulars and 2 totally wash out. As you go further down the risk becomes even higher.

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  1. 2013′s Top 125 Prospects: UPDATE | Roto Analysis - March 24, 2013

    [...] month ago I released my 2nd annual top 125 prospect list. After a site-record amount of comments and views for one article as well as great reader feedback, [...]

  2. A Breakdown of the 2013 Sloan Sports Analytics Conference | Roto Analysis - March 3, 2013

    [...] [4] The winner of “Evolution of Sport” addresses, by Adam Guttridge, was an automated prospect model that was very interesting and a potential baseline for future scouting of baseball prospects. Very nice complement and far more detailed than my top 125 prospects. [...]

  3. Rangers Notes: Profar Out to Prove Worth as Camp Begins | Nate's Notes - February 14, 2013

    [...] by many to be the top overall prospect in Major League Baseball, Profar’s playing time in Cactus League games will be determined in part [...]

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