Over a month ago I released my 2nd annual top 125 prospect list. After a site-record amount of comments and views for one article as well as great reader feedback, I decided to update the list. There are a few different reasons for each of these changes — impressive results in spring training, new scouting reports, and simply more research on my part were the 3 main reasons.
I recommend reading my main post with the original rankings to understand my exact methodology, but here’s a quick summary. For each prospect I created a “risk” value and a “ceiling” value. By combining these two aspects of a prospect’s performance and projection I created a 9 point scale with a 9 being “A” ceiling with “low” risk. No player reached this mark, but there were 3 “7″s. This helps me to create tiers and thus order the list. So, on to the update.
Even just this picture of Yasiel Puig oozes of power, potential, and a little swagger.
Yasiel Puig was the largest riser for me. I was already pretty high on him (#51) compared to many other sites, but boosted him all the way #34. While that may seem like an overreaction to a few big games, he has been facing legit major league talent and killing it. The scouting reports back all of this up as both the Dodgers org and others see that he is even better than expected at a $42 million price tag. He’s going to be one of my favorite guys to watch this season. Here are some other quick notes:
- While I didn’t move him, I feel a lot more certain about my Julio Teheran ranking than I did before. He’s still very advanced for his age and could have a great year.
- Christian Yellich is absolutely killing it. Nice little .364/.451/.818 triple slash for ya and showing the hit tool and plate discipline of a clear top 10 prospect.
- Despite many thinking Tyler Skaggs could make the Dbacks rotation to start the year, his rough spring training did him. He could be a good option for fantasy owners in the second half of the season.
- Aaron Hicks went from a 3 homer game to a terrible couple weeks, but should still start the season as the Twins CF. I’m not sure how quickly he’ll start producing great fantasy numbers, but he can definitely get you some cheap steals.
- Couple other raw top tier hitters keep producing. Javier Baez tore it up and has one of the best swings in the minors. #22 is a solid slot for him as he should continue to rake. Jackie Bradley is hitting .429 and walking more than he strikes out. For a guy who’s about to turn 23 this is a key year for his development as he’s really close to contributing at the top level.
Here are the updated ranks!
Rank Name Position Team Ceiling Risk
1 Jurickson Profar SS TEX B+ Low 7
2 Wil Myers OF TB A- Medium 7
3 Dylan Bundy SP BAL A- Medium 7
4 Gerrit Cole SP PIT A- High 6
5 Oscar Taveras OF STL B+ Medium 6
6 Zack Wheeler SP NYM A- High 6
7 Travis D'Arnaud C NYM B+ Medium 6
8 Christian Yellich OF MIA B+ Medium 6
9 Taijuan Walker SP SEA A- Very High 5
10 Jose Fernandez SP MIA A- Very High 5
11 Xander Bogaerts SS BOS A- High 6
12 Billy Hamilton SS/OF CIN B Medium 5
13 Miguel Sano 3B MIN A- Very High 5
14 Tyler Skaggs SP ARI B+ High 5
15 Jameson Taillon SP PIT A- Very High 5
16 Byron Buxton OF MIN A- Very High 5
17 Francisco Lindor SS CLE B+ High 5
18 Shelby Miller SP STL B+ High 5
19 Nick Castellanos 3B/OF DET B+ High 5
20 Julio Teheran SP ATL B+ High 5
21 Mike Zunino C SEA B Medium 5
22 Javier Baez SS CHC A- Very High 5
23 Anthony Rendon 3B WSH B+ High 5
24 Jonathan Singleton 1B HOU B+ High 5
25 Archie Bradley SP ARI B+ High 5
26 Mike Olt 3B/1B TEX B+ High 5
27 Addison Russell SS OAK A- Very High 5
28 David Dahl OF COL A- Very High 5
29 Aaron Sanchez SP TOR A- Very High 5
30 Trevor Bauer SP CLE B+ High 5
31 Kyle Zimmer SP KC A- Very High 5
32 Bubba Starling OF KC A- Very High 5
33 Carlos Correa SS HOU B+ High 5
34 Yasiel Puig OF LAD A- Very High 5
35 Noah Syndergaard SP NYM B+ High 5
36 Albert Almora OF CHC B High 4
37 Jorge Soler OF CHC A- ABSURD 4
38 Taylor Guerrieri SP TB B+ Very High 4
39 Max Fried SP SD B+ Very High 4
40 Kevin Gausman SP BAL B+ Very High 4
41 Jackie Bradley OF BOS B+ High 5
42 George Springer OF HOU B+ Very High 4
43 Mason Williams OF NYY B+ Very High 4
44 Chris Archer SP TB B High 4
45 Brian Goodwin OF WSH B+ Very High 4
46 Alen Hanson SS PIT B+ Very High 4
47 Lucas Giolito SP WSH A- ABSURD 4
48 Danny Hultzen SP SEA B High 4
49 Trevor Rosenthal SP STL B High 4
50 Nolan Arenado 3B COL B High 4
51 Leonys Martin OF TEX B Medium 5
52 Oswaldo Arcia OF MIN B High 4
53 Carlos Martinez SP STL B+ Very High 4
54 Matt Barnes SP BOS B High 4
55 Gregory Polanco OF PIT B+ Very High 4
56 Kolten Wong 2B STL B- Medium 4
57 Robert Stephenson SP CIN B High 4
58 Nick Franklin SS SEA B High 4
59 Jesse Biddle SP PHI B+ Very High 4
60 Kaleb Cowart 3B LAA B+ Very High 4
61 Jake Odorizzi SP TB B High 4
62 Aaron Hicks OF MIN B+ Very High 4
63 AJ Cole SP WSH B+ Very High 4
64 Rymer Liriano OF SD B High 4
65 Corey Seager 3B LAD B+ Very High 4
66 Gary Sanchez C NYY B+ Very High 4
67 Michael Choice OF OAK B High 4
68 Kyle Crick SP SF B+ Very High 4
69 Tyler Austin OF NYY B+ Very High 4
70 Jake Marisnick OF MIA B High 4
71 Austin Hedges C SD B High 4
72 Andrew Heaney SP MIA B High 4
73 Justin Nicolino SP MIA B High 4
74 Robbie Erlin SP SD B- Medium 4
75 Cody Buckel SP TEX B High 4
76 Courtney Hawkins OF CWS B+ Very High 4
77 Alex Meyer SP MIN B+ Very High 4
78 Tony Cingrani SP CIN B High 4
79 Zach Lee SP LAD B High 4
80 Martin Perez SP TEX B High 4
81 Kyle Gibson SP MIN B High 4
82 Grant Green 2B/OF OAK B High 4
83 Eddie Rosario 2B/OF MIN B Very High 3
84 Wily Peralta SP MIL B High 4
85 Josh Bell OF PIT B+ Very High 4
86 Jedd Gyorko 2B/3B SD B- High 3
87 Jonathan Schoop 2B/SS BAL B High 4
88 Luis Heredia SP PIT B+ ABSURD 4
89 Trevor Story SS COL B Very High 3
90 Jose Campos SP NYY B+ ABSURD 3
91 Michael Wacha SP STL B Very High 3
92 Matt Davidson 3B ARI B- High 3
93 Henry Owens SP BOS B Very High 3
94 Slade Heathcott OF NYY B Very High 3
95 Didi Gregorius SS ARI B- Medium 4
96 Allen Webster SP BOS B- High 4
97 Bruce Rondon RP DET C+ Low 3
98 Alex Colome SP TB B Very High 3
99 Joey Gallo 3B TEX B Very High 3
100 Delino DeShields 2B HOU B Very High 3
101 Jorge Alfaro C TEX B+ ABSURD 3
102 Lewis Brinson OF TEX B+ ABSURD 3
103 Daniel Corcino SP CIN B Very High 3
104 Yordano Ventura SP KC B Very High 3
105 Brett Jackson OF CHC B Very High 3
106 Hak-Ju Lee SS TB B- High 3
107 Deven Marrero SS BOS B Very High 3
108 Richie Shaffer 3B TB B Very High 3
109 Wilmer Flores 3B NYM B- High 3
110 Marcell Ozuna OF MIA B Very High 3
111 Luis Sardinas 2B/SS TEX B Very High 3
112 Jarred Cosart SP HOU B Very High 3
113 Clayton Blackburn SP SF B Very High 3
114 Dorssys Paulino SS CLE B Very High 3
115 Ronald Guzman OF TEX B+ ABSURD 3
116 Nomar Mazara OF TEX B+ ABSURD 3
117 Roberto Osuna SP TOR B+ ABSURD 3
118 Manny Banuelos SP NYY B Very High 3
119 Blake Swihart C BOS B Very High 3
120 Dan Vogelbach 1B CHC B Very High 3
121 Luke Jackson SP TEX B Very High 3
122 James Paxton SP SEA B Very High 3
123 Gary Brown OF SF B Very High 3
124 Brandon Nimmo OF NYM B+ ABSURD 3
125 CJ Cron 1B LAA B- High 3
Honorable Mentions: Matt Adams, Tim Beckham, Gavin Cecchini, Andrew Chafin, D.J. Davis, Avisail Garcia, Onelki Garcia, Luiz Gohara, Angelo Gumbs, Sonny Gray, Adeiny Hechavarria, Tryell Jenkins, Tommy Joseph, Max Kepler, Lance McCullers, Rougned Odor, Brad Peacock, Victor Roache, Eduardo Rodriguez, Stefen Romero, Joe Ross, Cory Spangenberg, Chris Stratton, Marcus Stroman, Drew Vettleson
Matt Cott is a co-founder of RotoAnalysis. Follow him on Twitter @KidCotti21 and find his work all season long on CBSPhilly.com and RotoAnalysis.com!
______________________
Photo Credit: http://l1.yimg.com/bt/api/res/1.2/W2.07jMYiogzCrefLDqiog–/YXBwaWQ9eW5ld3M7cT04NTt3PTYzMA–/http://media.zenfs.com/en_US/Sports/USA_Today/20130319_lbm_ar5_102-404a6ce9f3eadd8127d1a098ffc155b5
I enjoyed the list Matt. Well done. I was particularly interested in your take on the Reds prospects. I love Billy Hamilton’s speed but the jury is still out on his batting. I hope he can be more productive than Vince Coleman, but I have my doubts. I am getting excited about Robert Stephenson and Nick Travieso. I am not so bullish on Cingrani and Corcino as I believe they will end up in the bullpen. Have seen or heard anything about Jesse Winker?
Nick, thanks for reading! Travieso definitely has potential but has a ways to go — Cingrani I’d definitely raise my hopes a little if I were you. He just continues to put up sick stats and generate strong reports.
As for Winker I didn’t consider him, and Marc Hulet put it well on FanGraphs saying he has classic “left field type tools.” That’s not a very good ceiling. Not to totally discount him but he’s got to really prove himself and up some scouts’ opinions.
I like Taveras as No. 2, I think Shelby Miller and Julio Teheran are too low. I have a soft spot for Jose Fernanadez, so maybe it’s bias to want him higher than 10. I think Castellanos has fallen in many boards, so I don’t have him as a top-25 MiLB guy (probably top-35). I think Michael Choice and Anthony Rendon should be moved up.
That’s about it, I think.
Where is Stryker Trahan???
He was a guy I looked at who could clearly shoot up the list next year, but for now is just shy. There are just too many questions about him at this point — he’s super super raw, may move from behind the plate, and the hit tool in particular needs work.
Definitely an interesting guy to watch for the future though.
Hate to be that guy, but Adalberto Mondesi should at least be HM IMHO.
THAT said, I love your lists, I think they are much more in line with my rankings than almost all other lists I ascribe to in the slightest.
Quick question, sorry if this is obvious or already gone over specifically, but is “Risk” purely based on odds they become Major League regulars or exclusively odds they reach FULL potential?
If it’s the Latter I think Jackie Bradley would be Medium at the Highest, Puif wouldn’t be absurd, but Starling would.
Not trying to nitpick, but am trying to open some dialogue and get some insight where I can.
Once again thank you so much for the effort and I love the Ceiling/Risk approach!!
To be honest I don’t know that much about Mondesi, but as a 16 year old it’s just really really hard to project him. That said, to be on the prospect radar at such a young age is impressive — I just tend to take a wait and see approach on guys like that because the bust rate is so high.
Risk i would say is to reach their full potential, but definitely kind of has a milestone for whether I think they become Major League regulars. I.e. Billy Hamilton is probably a higher risk than Medium to reach his full potential, but I think his 80 speed will make his odds of being a regular very high. That make sense? And given Bradley and Puig’s spring they could definitely be considered for an upgrade, it’s just a small sample.
Glad you like it!
Thanx for the list. But Swihart is ranked #119 and also listed as an HM.
good catch, thanks! now fixed.