2013′s Top 125 Prospects [UPDATE]

Over a month ago I released my 2nd annual top 125 prospect list. After a site-record amount of comments and views for one article as well as great reader feedback, I decided to update the list. There are a few different reasons for each of these changes — impressive results in spring training, new scouting reports, and simply more research on my part were the 3 main reasons.

I recommend reading my main post with the original rankings to understand my exact methodology, but here’s a quick summary. For each prospect I created a “risk” value and a “ceiling” value. By combining these two aspects of a prospect’s performance and projection I created a 9 point scale with a 9 being “A” ceiling with “low” risk. No player reached this mark, but there were 3 “7″s. This helps me to create tiers and thus order the list. So, on to the update.

Even just this picture of Yasiel Puig oozes of power, potential, and a little swagger.

Even just this picture of Yasiel Puig oozes of power, potential, and a little swagger.

Yasiel Puig was the largest riser for me. I was already pretty high on him (#51) compared to many other sites, but boosted him all the way #34. While that may seem like an overreaction to a few big games, he has been facing legit major league talent and killing it. The scouting reports back all of this up as both the Dodgers org and others see that he is even better than expected at a $42 million price tag. He’s going to be one of my favorite guys to watch this season. Here are some other quick notes:

  • While I didn’t move him, I feel a lot more certain about my Julio Teheran ranking than I did before. He’s still very advanced for his age and could have a great year.
  • Christian Yellich is absolutely killing it. Nice little .364/.451/.818 triple slash for ya and showing the hit tool and plate discipline of a clear top 10 prospect.
  • Despite many thinking Tyler Skaggs could make the Dbacks rotation to start the year, his rough spring training did him. He could be a good option for fantasy owners in the second half of the season.
  • Aaron Hicks went from a 3 homer game to a terrible couple weeks, but should still start the season as the Twins CF. I’m not sure how quickly he’ll start producing great fantasy numbers, but he can definitely get you some cheap steals.
  • Couple other raw top tier hitters keep producing. Javier Baez tore it up and has one of the best swings in the minors. #22 is a solid slot for him as he should continue to rake. Jackie Bradley is hitting .429 and walking more than he strikes out. For a guy who’s about to turn 23 this is a key year for his development as he’s really close to contributing at the top level.

Here are the updated ranks!

RankNamePositionTeamCeilingRisk
1Jurickson ProfarSSTEXB+Low7
2Wil MyersOFTBA-Medium7
3Dylan BundySPBALAHigh7
4Gerrit ColeSPPITA-High6
5Oscar TaverasOFSTLB+Medium6
6Zack WheelerSPNYMA-High6
7Travis D'ArnaudCNYMB+Medium6
8Christian YellichOFMIAB+Medium6
9Taijuan WalkerSPSEAA-Very High5
10Jose FernandezSPMIAA-Very High5
11Xander BogaertsSSBOSA-High6
12Billy HamiltonSS/OFCINB+Medium6
13Miguel Sano3BMINAVery High6
14Tyler SkaggsSPARIB+High5
15Jameson TaillonSPPITA-Very High5
16Byron BuxtonOFMINA-Very High5
17Francisco LindorSSCLEB+High5
18Shelby MillerSPSTLB+High5
19Nick Castellanos3B/OFDETB+High5
20Julio TeheranSPATLB+High5
21Mike ZuninoCSEABMedium5
22Javier BaezSSCHCA-Very High5
23Anthony Rendon3BWSHB+High5
24Jonathan Singleton1BHOUB+High5
25Archie BradleySPARIB+High5
26Mike Olt3B/1BTEXB+High5
27Addison RussellSSOAKA-Very High5
28David DahlOFCOLA-Very High5
29Aaron SanchezSPTORA-Very High5
30Trevor BauerSPCLEB+High5
31Kyle ZimmerSPKCA-Very High5
32Bubba StarlingOFKCA-Very High5
33Carlos CorreaSSHOUB+High5
34Yasiel PuigOFLADA-Very High5
35Noah SyndergaardSPNYMB+High5
36Albert AlmoraOFCHCBHigh4
37Jorge SolerOFCHCA-ABSURD4
38Taylor GuerrieriSPTBB+Very High4
39Max FriedSPSDB+Very High4
40Kevin GausmanSPBALB+Very High4
41Jackie BradleyOFBOSB+High5
42George SpringerOFHOUB+Very High4
43Mason WilliamsOFNYYB+Very High4
44Chris ArcherSPTBBHigh4
45Brian GoodwinOFWSHB+Very High4
46Alen HansonSSPITB+Very High4
47Lucas GiolitoSPWSHA-ABSURD4
48Danny HultzenSPSEABHigh4
49Trevor RosenthalSPSTLBHigh4
50Nolan Arenado3BCOLBHigh4
51Leonys MartinOFTEXBMedium5
52Oswaldo ArciaOFMINBHigh4
53Carlos MartinezSPSTLB+Very High4
54Matt BarnesSPBOSBHigh4
55Gregory PolancoOFPITB+Very High4
56Kolten Wong2BSTLB-Medium4
57Robert StephensonSPCINBHigh4
58Nick FranklinSSSEABHigh4
59Jesse BiddleSPPHIB+Very High4
60Kaleb Cowart3BLAAB+Very High4
61Jake OdorizziSPTBBHigh4
62Aaron HicksOFMINB+Very High4
63AJ ColeSPWSHB+Very High4
64Rymer LirianoOFSDBHigh4
65Corey Seager3BLADB+Very High4
66Gary SanchezCNYYB+Very High4
67Michael ChoiceOFOAKBHigh4
68Kyle CrickSPSFB+Very High4
69Tyler AustinOFNYYB+Very High4
70Jake MarisnickOFMIABHigh4
71Austin HedgesCSDBHigh4
72Andrew HeaneySPMIABHigh4
73Justin NicolinoSPMIABHigh4
74Robbie ErlinSPSDB-Medium4
75Cody BuckelSPTEXBHigh4
76Courtney HawkinsOFCWSB+Very High4
77Alex MeyerSPMINB+Very High4
78Tony CingraniSPCINBHigh4
79Zach LeeSPLADBHigh4
80Martin PerezSPTEXBHigh4
81Kyle GibsonSPMINBHigh4
82Grant Green2B/OFOAKBHigh4
83Eddie Rosario2B/OFMINBVery High3
84Wily PeraltaSPMILBHigh4
85Josh BellOFPITB+Very High4
86Jedd Gyorko2B/3BSDB-High3
87Jonathan Schoop2B/SSBALBHigh4
88Luis HerediaSPPITB+ABSURD4
89Trevor StorySSCOLBVery High3
90Jose CamposSPNYYB+ABSURD3
91Michael WachaSPSTLBVery High3
92Matt Davidson3BARIB-High3
93Henry OwensSPBOSBVery High3
94Slade HeathcottOFNYYBVery High3
95Didi GregoriusSSARIB-Medium4
96Allen WebsterSPBOSB-High4
97Bruce RondonRPDETC+Low3
98Alex ColomeSPTBBVery High3
99Joey Gallo3BTEXBVery High3
100Delino DeShields2BHOUBVery High3
101Jorge AlfaroCTEXB+ABSURD3
102Lewis BrinsonOFTEXB+ABSURD3
103Daniel CorcinoSPCINBVery High3
104Yordano VenturaSPKCBVery High3
105Brett JacksonOFCHCBVery High3
106Hak-Ju LeeSSTBB-High3
107Deven MarreroSSBOSBVery High3
108Richie Shaffer3BTBBVery High3
109Wilmer Flores3BNYMB-High3
110Marcell OzunaOFMIABVery High3
111Luis Sardinas2B/SSTEXBVery High3
112Jarred CosartSPHOUBVery High3
113Clayton BlackburnSPSFBVery High3
114Dorssys PaulinoSSCLEBVery High3
115Ronald GuzmanOFTEXB+ABSURD3
116Nomar MazaraOFTEXB+ABSURD3
117Roberto OsunaSPTORB+ABSURD3
118Manny BanuelosSPNYYBVery High3
119Blake SwihartCBOSBVery High3
120Dan Vogelbach1BCHCBVery High3
121Luke JacksonSPTEXBVery High3
122James PaxtonSPSEABVery High3
123Gary BrownOFSFBVery High3
124Brandon NimmoOFNYMB+ABSURD3
125CJ Cron1BLAAB-High3

Honorable Mentions: Matt Adams, Tim Beckham, Gavin Cecchini, Andrew Chafin, D.J. Davis, Avisail Garcia, Onelki Garcia, Luiz Gohara, Angelo Gumbs, Sonny Gray, Adeiny Hechavarria, Tryell Jenkins, Tommy Joseph, Max Kepler, Lance McCullers, Rougned Odor, Brad Peacock, Victor Roache, Eduardo Rodriguez, Stefen Romero, Joe Ross, Cory Spangenberg, Chris Stratton, Marcus Stroman, Drew Vettleson

Matt Cott is a co-founder of RotoAnalysis. Follow him on Twitter @KidCotti21 and find his work all season long on CBSPhilly.com and RotoAnalysis.com!

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Photo Credit: http://l1.yimg.com/bt/api/res/1.2/W2.07jMYiogzCrefLDqiog–/YXBwaWQ9eW5ld3M7cT04NTt3PTYzMA–/http://media.zenfs.com/en_US/Sports/USA_Today/20130319_lbm_ar5_102-404a6ce9f3eadd8127d1a098ffc155b5

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11 Responses to 2013′s Top 125 Prospects [UPDATE]

  1. Nick in Cincinnati March 27, 2013 at 23:52 #

    I enjoyed the list Matt. Well done. I was particularly interested in your take on the Reds prospects. I love Billy Hamilton’s speed but the jury is still out on his batting. I hope he can be more productive than Vince Coleman, but I have my doubts. I am getting excited about Robert Stephenson and Nick Travieso. I am not so bullish on Cingrani and Corcino as I believe they will end up in the bullpen. Have seen or heard anything about Jesse Winker?

    • Matt Cott March 28, 2013 at 11:38 #

      Nick, thanks for reading! Travieso definitely has potential but has a ways to go — Cingrani I’d definitely raise my hopes a little if I were you. He just continues to put up sick stats and generate strong reports.

      As for Winker I didn’t consider him, and Marc Hulet put it well on FanGraphs saying he has classic “left field type tools.” That’s not a very good ceiling. Not to totally discount him but he’s got to really prove himself and up some scouts’ opinions.

  2. Tim March 27, 2013 at 05:05 #

    I like Taveras as No. 2, I think Shelby Miller and Julio Teheran are too low. I have a soft spot for Jose Fernanadez, so maybe it’s bias to want him higher than 10. I think Castellanos has fallen in many boards, so I don’t have him as a top-25 MiLB guy (probably top-35). I think Michael Choice and Anthony Rendon should be moved up.

    That’s about it, I think.

  3. jon March 25, 2013 at 12:54 #

    Where is Stryker Trahan???

    • Matt Cott March 25, 2013 at 13:09 #

      He was a guy I looked at who could clearly shoot up the list next year, but for now is just shy. There are just too many questions about him at this point — he’s super super raw, may move from behind the plate, and the hit tool in particular needs work.

      Definitely an interesting guy to watch for the future though.

  4. RobbyRobDU March 24, 2013 at 18:31 #

    Hate to be that guy, but Adalberto Mondesi should at least be HM IMHO.

    THAT said, I love your lists, I think they are much more in line with my rankings than almost all other lists I ascribe to in the slightest.

    Quick question, sorry if this is obvious or already gone over specifically, but is “Risk” purely based on odds they become Major League regulars or exclusively odds they reach FULL potential?

    If it’s the Latter I think Jackie Bradley would be Medium at the Highest, Puif wouldn’t be absurd, but Starling would.

    Not trying to nitpick, but am trying to open some dialogue and get some insight where I can.

    Once again thank you so much for the effort and I love the Ceiling/Risk approach!!

    • Matt Cott March 25, 2013 at 13:16 #

      To be honest I don’t know that much about Mondesi, but as a 16 year old it’s just really really hard to project him. That said, to be on the prospect radar at such a young age is impressive — I just tend to take a wait and see approach on guys like that because the bust rate is so high.

      Risk i would say is to reach their full potential, but definitely kind of has a milestone for whether I think they become Major League regulars. I.e. Billy Hamilton is probably a higher risk than Medium to reach his full potential, but I think his 80 speed will make his odds of being a regular very high. That make sense? And given Bradley and Puig’s spring they could definitely be considered for an upgrade, it’s just a small sample.

      Glad you like it!

  5. rhd March 24, 2013 at 12:28 #

    Thanx for the list. But Swihart is ranked #119 and also listed as an HM.

Trackbacks/Pingbacks

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